Tuesday, 19 August 2014

The Ongoing Takeover Of British Football By The New Global Financial Capitalist Elite


One of the most striking features of football in recent times has been the takeover of leading clubs by investors who would not appear, on the surface, to have any real interest in the business of football.

Consequently, the wave of American takeovers of clubs like Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool, Sunderland and Aston Villa is the subject of this post.

In the eyes of this particular new breed of owners, it is no longer necessary to win titles and trophies.
The creation of short term cash is everything. 
If competitions can be won as well then this is fine and dandy but club performance on the field is always secondary to financial achievement off of it. 

This puts such owners at odds with the fans.

Dr Jack Rasmus: "The [global financial capitalist] elite are deepening their control of non-financial companies and are increasingly directing those companies toward profits growth from financial manipulation as the primary corporate activity... Instead of making profits by making real things that require real investment and employ real people, the focus of global capitalism is increasingly toward more financial asset investment."

Thus real profit is being surpassed by generating forms of money capital as profit.

It is the US that is behind the majority of this activity.

Financial gains may be 'created' by manipulation of the US tax code through the utilisation of 'inversion' capitalism and, additionally, shadow bankers and their financial speculators also markedly gain from the structure.
Even greater gains come from financial speculation that benefit other investors, major shareholders and senior management.
Rasmus: "Lower taxes for the US corporation from the inversion means more retained corporate cash on hand, and the prospect of more future earnings as well, all of which in turn drives up the company’s stock price. That makes the company even more attractive to investors like hedge funds and equity firms, which buy up big blocks of both the purchasing and purchased companies’ stock. Banks and shadow bankers that jump into the process at the outset, buying up company stock in the process, also provide original funding for the company’s purchase. Others jump into the stock as the acquisition deal proceeds. Once concluded, early and latecomers both then reap a nice capital gain from the eventual stock price appreciation that almost always follows the deal... So all levels of financial speculators benefit from these ‘inversion’ deals—shadow bank investors, hedge fund managers, big stockholders, and top corporate managers with significant stock holdings and compensation—all realise big capital gains from stock price manipulation that is at the core of tax inversion deals. Again, it is not just about tax avoidance; it is about stock price manipulation and huge capital gains."

Taking Manchester United as our primary example.
The leveraged buyout by the Glazers imposed significant annual interest repayments on the club.
This outflow of tens of millions of pounds annually prevents significant reinvestment in the transfer market with the club being restricted to players in the £20-35m strata as opposed to the level of players being purchased by Real Madrid or Barcelona, for example.
Ronaldo out...
... Fellaini in!

Additionally transfer activity is delayed in a brinksmanship fashion to produce the maximum benefit to short term cash flow. Last season this resulted in the majority of transfer targets failing by end of transfer window and there is now pressure on Ed Woodward to make the necessary purchases this season.
Many of these targets will not arrive as the selling club will price their assets according to Man Utd's 'need'.

But, to the Glazers, Manchester United's failure to purchase star players, land the title, win any trophies, qualify for Champions League or Europa League is entirely trumped by the £750m 10 year Adidas deal that produces lots and lots of cash.

Other takeovers are of even more questionable integrity due to the owners' interests in betting markets.
In these cases, the generation of cash by match manipulation frequently competes with integrity on the pitch.

Inversion capitalism is the lovechild of private equity where short term profits were generated by taking over a company, asset stripping its value and selling on the shell at a significant profit.
Indeed, inversion deals are merely a slightly longer term version of private equity on a global stage.

And there are now copycat structures popping up all over the British game.

If you apply the above template to Celtic, for example, many of the same bullet points appear.
  • The selling of players at significant profit (Wanyama, Forster, Hooper, McGeady, Ki, Ledley, Wilson and Watt bringing in £40m gain to the club) without the necessary reinvestment or the strategy of bringing in numerous players on loan without any capital outlay (or future profits). Or club loyalty.
  • Refusal to invest for Champions League progression as the financial returns of such investment are uncertain.
  • Satisfaction with winning SPL ad finitum rather than strategic planning towards the future European Super League as these potential profits are too far into the future for short-termist thinkers.
  • The scheduling of pointless pre-season friendlies all around Europe for financial gains rather than developing a sense of 'home' at Murrayfield during period that Parkhead was hired out for profit. If Legia Warszawa hadn't messed up, this season would be over already in a footballing sense.
  • Low wage, minimum wage, living wage issues at the bottom of the club hierarchy.
  • The linkage to criminalised agents of highly questionable integrity both with regard to transfer markets and betting markets.
There are numerous other modular structures to serve the same or similar ends - the Abramovich Trophy Club Model, the Carson Yeung/ Thaksin Shinawatra Asian Betting Market Model, the Dubai/Mumbai Betting Market Model, the Abu Dhabi Global Franchise Model, the Real Madrid/Gestifute Model, the ADO Den Haag/United Vansen Model, the Leeds United Model MkI, II and III, the Bet365/Stoke City Model, the Stellar Agents Model, the John Colquhoun/Jonathan Moss Model as well as varieties of Sevco Self-Harming Models.

None of these capitalist matrices have the interests of the particular club at heart.
All are geared to the short term financial gains of a criminalised global finance capitalist elite.

But, what the hell do we care?

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed

© Football is Fixed 2006-2013  

Thursday, 31 July 2014

Insider Trading Is Not Necessarily Match Fixing


Last night was an incredibly depressing defeat.
It was a humiliating and, most likely, an immensely costly loss.
But it wasn't match fixing and it wasn't corruption and it wasn't illegal.

Anyone watching the match could see that things weren't right - a woeful defence, some astonishingly poor performances, a total lack of fitness, a referee with a liking for our friends from Ajax, key players absolutely drained after World Cup exertions, Scott Brown's absence, the negative impact of playing a meaningless friendly against St Pauli instead of resting up for a match that might define Celtic's season...

These are not conspiracies or criminalities, they are real fundamental facts affecting the outcome of a football match.

An insider might choose to bet and profit from a combination of this public and private knowledge plus any extra nuggets he might possess.
This isn't illegal.
It doesn't even mean that the insider isn't professionally focused on the club.
It simply means that he wishes to benefit financially from his privileged position.
And it does not mean the match is bent...
... but it does mean that the game is.

Some stuff...

  • Some English Premier League matches have global betting turnover in the billions of pounds. You can get millions of pounds accepted by brokers in Asia on such games without them even blinking. Referees earn less than £2K per week. Referees are a major feature in virtually all corruption episodes around the world. Match fixing results.
  • Players have lifelong allegiances to their agents that surpasses any club loyalty (with some honourable exceptions).Some agents also bet professionally. In some games, all of a defence will be represented by one or two agents or more than 50% of the players on the pitch will be represented by four agents, for example. Some agents work very closely together in a cartel fashion. Match fixing results.
  • The brands demand certain outcomes. Brazil winning the opening match of the World Cup, say, or the existence of certain referees past and present in the SPL, or UEFA wishing for G14 powerhouse Juventus to be eased past Celtic in the Champions League courtesy of Undiano Mallenco. This results in match fixing.
  • It would be easier to list the teams in the English Premier League and Championship that don't have very active betting activities associated with them than those that are legitimate. Imagine the scenario where a team is playing an end of season match of no consequence and the owner of the club is a bookmaker who has significant (and ethically awkward) betting market liabilities on the game. For the bottom line of the club, the less ethical route is much more financially rewarding. This is match fixing and it isn't illegal.
  • Bookmakers, brokers, market makers, dark pool traders, market professionals, regulators, the police, UEFA and FIFA all recognise that match fixing is massively widespread. But there is no global regulation against insider trading (whether match fixing or just taking profit from insider knowledge). Market platforms seek the trades of insiders as it improves their market knowledge and hence their financial returns. They actively trade this 'knowledge' elsewhere in the market. This isn't illegal. It is just high stakes poker. No bookie wants to be left with the liability when the game kicks off.
  • In horseracing, there is no incentive to throw the Derby or the Grand National due to the kudos and cash that results. However, the 3:15 at Catterick on a Tuesday afternoon when a leading bookmaker has massive liabilities on the 4/7 favourite is a different affair. This is fixing in another sport but the structure is identical to modern football. Except that the rewards in football are far far greater.
  • In financial markets, insider trading used to be legal in Britain until around 50 years ago. A broker could have lunch with an executive and short sell the executive's company based on private information from this encounter. This was market fixing and it wasn't illegal. But it is now. Football needs global regulation to tackle match fixing, corruption, money laundering and the tax avoidance associated with these practices. FIFA should be taking on this role rather than awarding World Cups to countries who (allegedly) shoot down passenger planes and those who murder their immigrant workforce via medieval employment practices in tropical heat.

We form part of a global cellular grouping of individuals from all areas of the game who are not satisfied with the manner in which money people are taking over the game.
We have developed proprietary software for monitoring and analysing financial and betting markets.
We explore the dark net for underground and dark pool operations.
We are frequently appalled by what we find but, historically, there have been few global bodies willing to stand up to the rampant corruption.
We also undertake consultancies - last season I worked for a German team and I'm now working with a body monitoring match fixing in football.
We do nothing illegal.
We just try to undermine corruption in football.

There is a much more determined effort by the likes of Interpol to address match fixing (see last blog post).
But match fixing is not just a problem in the Asian underground.
It is everywhere.

Of course, whether you accept that the above structures are demolishing the game is up to you.
We merely put some stuff in front of you and you can make up your own minds - Glaswegians (both Celtic and Sevco) have enough nous to understand match fixing and corruption when they see it.

But remember.
Nobody did anything illegal prior to the defeat in Warszawa.
Nothing to see there...
... apart from an inept performance, poorly planned, strategically stunted, financially disastrous and interestingly refereed.

http://footballisfixed.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/how-to-solve-match-fixing-once-and-for.html

http://footballisfixed.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/football-markets-are-not-only-markets.html

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed

© Football is Fixed 2006-2013   

Friday, 20 June 2014

Did You Not Like That?


Roy Hodgson only became England manager by virtue of not being Harry Redknapp.

After England were all but eliminated by a country with a population a third the size of Greater London, Roy Hodgson is "adamant" that he will not resign in the wake of the country's worst ever World Cup performance.
But it is an outrage that Hodgson was ever appointed in the first place.
The man has only won one league title (the Danish) in a quarter of a century and, with England eliminated at the group stage for the first time since 1958, he should have the decency to step down post-tournament.

But with £3.5m per annum plus fringe benefits and perks, Roy is not going to resign!

There were 72 support staff for the England World Cup debacle...
... if you give 72 monkies a typewriter, they don't produce Macbeth.

But surely we could expect something more than Noddy?

We detail why this was a project doomed to failure.

Roy Hodgson 

"I don't think we let the country down" - Roy Hodgson.

Hodgson appears to have far too great an affinity with a few agents - Stellar and Base represent the goalkeeper and the entire defence (that would be the defence that has just been responsible for losing the first two tournament games for the first time in England's history).
Hodgson himself is represented by Base.
Meanwhile, remember the two outlier selections for Euro 2012 - Kelly and Butland - they too were both Stellar clients at the time.
Key Sports' players gain special privileges too.

Non-meritocratic selection from an already limited pool of players is not a strong strategy.

Furthermore, in a fair world, Fulham would have been relegated when Hodgson was manager there but were saved by a match of highly questionable integrity that resulted in Reading being demoted in their stead.

Without making any allegations of shenanigans, the very fact that Hart, Johnson, Jagielka (Stellar) and Baines, Cahill, Hodgson (Base) are effectively in control of the entire global betting market on England World Cup games (and these markets have been colossally liquid in Brasil) should be a cause for concern.
Everybody has a price.

Joe Hart 

In the two games to date, Joe Hart has been the weakest performer via ratings and the primary reason for the underachievement of the England team.

Versus Italy, there were six shots on target - two goals, two shots hit the woodwork with Hart nowhere to be seen, another shot was cleared off the line by Jagielka and Hart dangerously fumbled the only other effort.

Versus Uruguay, 2 shots, 2 goals.
There was no spring in his step in attempting to save the first goal and he appeared the antithesis of Peter Schmeichel as he made himself as small a target as possible for the second goal.

Perhaps if the man focused on football rather than on the financial lubrications of Head & Shoulders, Gillette and Doritos, a more professional performance might be achieved.

Incidentally, and once again not intending any suggestions of anything, the turnover on these England World Cup matches has been in the billions.
At some point, a manager/agent/defence triumvirate (or an agent/goalkeeper one) is going to exploit that opportunity for excessively astronomical levels of profit.

Dr Steve Peters 

The appointment of a psychologist to help the team prepare for the World Cup was a good idea...
... thinking that Dr Peters was the right man to do that job was myopic.

He was chosen for his work at Liverpool.
But Liverpool won nothing last season despite the benefit of no Champions League matches and a bizarre tilt in refereeing decisions.

The key disastrous strategy took place in the game last night.

England players (including his Liverpool colleagues) were instructed to ignore Luis Suarez in the tunnel prior to the game in the mistaken belief that this would undermine the Uruguayan's sense of self.

There could not have been a more self-harming strategy.
You don't wind up a highly talented street-fighter who knows your weaknesses.
Suarez was energised by the collective slur.
England gave the South Americans a goal start!

After Peters monitored Suarez from close quarters throughout a season, how could he fail to diagnose the Uruguayan's psychological state?

Of course, in a corrupted future, such psychologist input could be a benefit to the short-selling of one's nation for proprietary profit. But only in a corrupted future...

Strategic Own Goals 

The list of strategic errors is endless...

Dyke offering the cutthroat gesture at the World Cup draw.
Hodgson dissing the good people of Manaus turning the game into an away match.
Dyke saying Blatter should resign on the eve of the tournament and Triesmann joining in for good measure.
Dyke refusing to offer Hodgson job security pre-tournament.
Not man-marking Pirlo.
Winding up Suarez and then marking him with a player who is repeatedly devastated by the Uruguayan in Merseyside derbies.
Not playing for a draw after equalising against Uruguay.
Hodgson hadn't even done the sums on qualification thinking that England were out of the cup after last night's defeat when, in fact, they could be backed to qualify at around 17/2.
Australia have somehow managed to cover 26km more than England in their two matches. Why wasn't more fitness work undertaken.

Did nobody want England to succeed? Why would that be?

The Gravy Train 

Alongside the underperformance of the team and their management and accomplices, English football has sent over a whole squad of undesirables to leech off the game that they are happily destroying.

The potential choice of punditry is extensive.
So how have BBC and ITV ended up with two representatives of leading bookies, a former Ladbrokes ambassador, a player who defended his brother when the latter was convicted of matchfixing charges, a player charged with illegal betting in the Premier League earlier this season, a manager who utilises PESs, two individuals with knowledge of matchfixing in England and Alan Shearer?

The disinformation from the bookies' representatives has been extensive to the detriment of the viewer who has no idea of the corruptions at play. Viewers have been repeatedly fed incorrect inputs that result in financial loss if acted upon.

There is a charming circularity here in that the footballer (Danny Murphy) who scored the goal that kept Fulham in the Premier League in the corrupted match which sent Reading down is now on the BBC team misinforming us about the World Cup!

These people are hijacking English football for proprietary and non-meritocratic benefit...
... or perhaps something still worse.

In the words of Stuart Pearce: “Other countries must look at us and laugh at times, they really must.”

Sack the lot of them!

Football is Fixed!

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed  

© Football is Fixed 2006-2014

Friday, 6 June 2014

How Ed Woodward Cost Manchester United £30 Million


Précis

Being a football man or, for that matter, a businessman is no longer enough for a team to reach its full potential due to the levels of corruption in the game.
Top teams need to instigate corrupt practices to exploit their power and to compete with other top sides who are employing similar tactics while lesser teams need to undertake defensive strategies to offset the corruptions perpetrated against their interests.
The strategic knowledge, the ability to create complex scenario analyses, the necessary contacts and market analytical skills (to assess the insider trading that is always linked to corruption) are required to optimise the performance of any serious football club in the postmodern game.

The Background 

Manchester United were available at 100/1 to qualify for the Champions League prior to their match at Everton on April 20th 2014...
... and yet if Ed Woodward and David Moyes had possessed an ounce of strategic planning between them, the club would have been guaranteed fourth place.

Richard Scudamore had announced that it was bad for the Premier League brand for Man Utd to be failing.
UEFA wanted United in the Champions League as there is a necessity for the second biggest global brand to be in the competition.
No other G14 top tier team had ever failed to qualify for the Champions League.
The Glazers understood that their leveraged buyout would be financially insecure with loss of income, deterioration in player value and inability to attract suitable players in future.
It was also understood within the club that they could not fall any further behind Manchester City.
Additionally, British and offshore bookmakers desired United qualification for turnover/profit reasons.
The systemic structure existed.

The Sting 

Manchester United needed to win all five remaining fixtures in their easy run-in while Arsenal achieved no more than 5 points from their final four games and Everton no more than six.
All three sides had to play Hull City (managed by former Red, Steve Bruce).
David Moyes was even sat next to Bruce in the Directors' area for the Aston Villa v Southampton match on April 19th.

If this were Spain, discussions would have taken place regarding maletins being exchanged to ensure suitable performances from Hull City.

With Hull on board, the strategy would have began in earnest.

If the Premier League want for something to occur with their brand, they can facilitate such realities through their control of the 18 PGMOL referees - a combination of Marriner, Atkinson, Webb, Taylor, Clattenburg and Moss as refs/4th officials would have done the trick (Moss and Clattenburg had already been selected for Hull v Arsenal and Everton v Man Utd while Marriner had overseen Everton's defeat by Palace earlier in the week).
As all referee appointments are made via just one individual, Keren Barratt, this offers a closed matrix of manipulation which is very easy to activate.

With Hull and the referees on board, the odds are no longer 100/1!

Approaches would then have been made to two leading firms of agents ####### and ######### who are both willing to 'persuade' their clients to underperform accordingly when requested.
These two firms would have delivered very key individuals in both the Arsenal and Everton teams to allow the maletins to be opened.
Once the corruption was in motion, the frail psychologies of failure relating to both Arsenal and Everton would have been engendered.

With Hull, the match officials, control of two key players in competitor sides and negative psychologies on board, United would have been certain of qualification and the £20 million that would have gone with it.

Instead, Woodward lost both this money and the £10 million it took to pay off David Moyes.

The amount that the corruption would have cost would have been a fraction of these totals and, obviously, significant inroads could have been made into the costs by trading on the fraudulent events in the Dark Pool and Asian Underground Betting Markets.

If you think that this scenario sounds incredible, I can assure you that similar corruptions occur every single season in the Champions League, Serie A and La Liga.

Football is Fixed!

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed  

© Football is Fixed 2006-2014

Monday, 6 January 2014

Crying Child, English Football (Insider Trading And Match Fixing?)

                                   The Magic Of The Cup Or The Tragic Of The Muck?                                         

Insider Trading And Match Fixing?

Nottingham Forest opened at 3.20 (11/5) in places for their FA Cup tie versus West Ham United.

By kick off, Nottingham Forest were 1.35 (4/11) at 10Bet.

West Ham drifted from Evens to 9/2.

Turnover was of a level normally seen in Big Six Premier League clashes.

IN OUR DATABASE OF OVER 80,000 GAMES COVERING TWO DECADES OF GLOBAL FOOTBALL WE HAVE NEVER WITNESSED SUCH PRICE DYNAMICS (WITH VOLUME) AS EXISTED ON THIS MATCH.

But...

Over 50% of the pre-match volume was traded before the West Ham team was made public...
... that was the team with 9 changes and three debutants and a 3 man defence where two players were making their first appearances of the season and the other was a midfielder who had been out for a month. A couple of substitutes were also debutants.

Oh, and a change of goalkeeper.

After losing 5-0, the West Ham hierarchy are offering a VIP package to the child filmed crying during this allegedly competitive game.

Looking at the betting patterns, that is the very least that the club should be doing.

If any one person involved in the match underperformed due to knowledge of the global gamble then we are dealing with match fixing.

Insider trading or...
... match fixing AND insider trading? 
___________________________________________________________________________________

When even youngsters know that they are being ripped off, the insider bettors really do not see reality in the same way as the rest of us.

Meanwhile in a parallel universe, Gordon Strachan, the Ladbrokes ambassador (for feck's sake?!), informed us on the ITV FA Cup highlights show: "The fans know nothing."

Which may be the case but at least they know enough to understand that they have just witnessed the biggest insider gamble for two decades and on a terrestrial televised match just two months into The English Match Fixing Scandal...

... even more audacious if it turns out to be match fixing!

IT IS ENTIRELY VALID TO REST PLAYERS...
... IT ISN'T VALID WHEN KNOWLEDGE OF THIS SELECTION SURFACES VIA SOME PEOPLE IN-THE-KNOW AS A COLOSSAL CO-ORDINATED INSIDER GAMBLE ACROSS THE PLANET.

THE INFORMATION SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE PUBLIC EARLIER SO THAT ITV DIDN'T PAY TO BROADCAST WEST HAM 3RD TEAM AND FANS DIDNT WASTE THEIR MONEY.

FANS PAY THEIR AUSTERITY-BITTEN EARNINGS TO WATCH FOOTBALL - NOT A BETTING SCANDAL UNFOLDING.

THIS INSIDER GAMBLE MASSIVELY DISTORTED AND CORRUPTED THE MARKETS FOR PRIVATE PROFIT.

AND IF THAT ISN'T ILLICIT INSIDER TRADING THEN WHAT THE FECK IS?  

BUT THE LIQUIDITY SUGGESTS THAT SOME PEOPLE WERE IN NO DOUBT AS TO THE OUTCOME AND THAT MAKES THIS EVENT SOMETHING FAR MORE SIGNIFICANT.

And even if this is solely an example of sociopathic insider trading...
... in financial markets in Britain, insider trading used to be regarded as a perk of the job before regulation was introduced. 
Now people are occasionally jailed for such psychopathy.

Why is insider trading on football seen differently?
Or have we become so inured to the corruption in the game that fans also see insider betting as merely being a perk of the job?

When bookies see such insider volume, the markets should be suspended as they are corrupted. All bets should be cancelled. End of...
Instead, the bookmakers trade it elsewhere for private profit. 

And that makes little boys cry! 

___________________________________________________________________________________

Meanwhile the authorities focus their concerted attentions on accusing some Black men of getting booked deliberately...

DJ Campbell Is Innocent...
... Relatively.
___________________________________________________________________________________

This blog post is no accusation against any individual or grouping of individuals.
But some insiders, those in-the-know, people in the loop, exploited inside knowledge to profit from a compromised market.
Our primary point is that this opportunity should not exist.
It is a loophole.

Bookies pass the knowledge around the world in a pyramid scheme of insider exploitation of the market until some offshore layer is left holding the liquidity parcel when the music stops.

This isn't a legitimate market.
It is a poker play.

But you cannot blame people for exploiting opportunities that come their way...
... it is the infrastructure of the game architected by the authorities that allow this casino to exist.

Until global betting markets are regulated, globally, and there is a compulsion for club officials to make public new knowledge that impacts upon the markets, these farces will recur recurrently.

Football markets are highly liquid global markets and should be treated as such.

If the information had been made public then ITV wouldn't have covered the game, bookmakers would have priced the market correctly, advertisers wouldn't be peeved about viewing figures, the FA Cup brand wouldn't have been tainted and, most importantly of all, West Ham fans wouldn't have wasted their money on a 3rd team game away from home with defeat a certainty.

After all, a debutant, a seasonal debutant and a midfielder who has not played in a month in a three man defence in front of a new goalie still perfecting his English is a given if you are in receipt of the knowledge!

http://footballisfixed.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/how-to-solve-match-fixing-once-and-for.html 


For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed  
© Football is Fixed 2006-2013

Sunday, 5 January 2014

Football Is Fecked

It is worthy of remembrance that Football Is Fixed was launched on November 11th 2006.

We have been exposing corruption in world football, with particular focus on the Premier League, for over seven years.
We have published over 1250 posts in that time (the vast majority now archived).

The first post 'Manipulated Markets' is reproduced in part below...
... we wouldn't alter one single word.

"English Football is currently reeling from the impacts of the Stevens inquiry into the bung culture, the standard and ethics of referees and the revelation that Victor Chandler International allegedly took bets from some Premiership Managers and Players. The words “tip” and “iceberg” spring to mind.
I have traded professionally on global football betting markets for the past 15 years. In my experience, all the brokers, market makers and bookmakers that I have traded with take bets from insiders in the game. It is regarded as buying information. Undoubtedly, some of this exchange of information borders on the corrupt. The recent betting scandal in Germany and the uproar in Italy’s Serie A show that this isn’t merely a British problem.
Asian Market Makers regularly accept bets of greater than £1million without blinking (Gianluigi Buffon – the Juventus goalkeeper – was found with betting slips for several million euros in his possession during the Moggiopoli scandal). Inevitably, the liquidity of the Asian markets persuades some football people to enhance their earning capacities. To my knowledge, such individuals include players, managers, referees, bookmakers, agents and the criminal fringe. It isn’t just the Italian mafia centres of Napoli, Palermo and Reggio di Calabria that are actively involved in football markets!
To date, all attempts to clean up the game have been peripheral. In Germany, some selective sweeping under the carpet and wrist slapping went on in response to the referee Robert Hoyzer admitting that he took money to alter football match outcomes. But, I believe that there are other match officials in the Bundesliga who were merely demoted or, indeed, allowed to continue to officiate. In Italy, in the aftermath of calciocaos, two referees were suspended but the other six who were under investigation are still involved in Serie A.
Although there are many corrupt players, it is the match officials who are the key component of this crisis. Some have links to individual clubs, some to bookmakers and some to the underworld. There are also many honest people in the game who are just trying to do their jobs. However, until football cleans up its act, corruption will persist. Falling attendances in Italy and England are partially related to deficiencies in the sport on offer. Although the prawn sandwich brigade remain oblivious to anything, the true fans know when they are being short changed. The recent assertion by Graeme Souness that British football is “the most honest in Europe” is simply laughable."
___________________________________________________________________________________

We selected the name 'Football Is Fixed' in an act of strategic duality whereby the fact that football was/is fixed could be offset by it eventually being mended - so football would indeed become fixed!
Foolish hope.

We outlined in a recent post six areas that have to be addressed if football is to elevate itself above a version of horseracing with a ball and goalposts (http://footballisfixed.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/how-to-solve-match-fixing-once-and-for.html).
The probability of even one area being addressed with integrity is remote!

But, even if we were to live in a world where betting markets could be regulated to prevent match fixing, the rules to be put in place would be Swiss-cheesed with loopholes to enable the same corruptions to happen again.
Over time, these loopholes would expand into newly available structures to enable future match fixing...
... just like capitalism after the Depression.

So, further attempts to rescue the game are now seen as futile.

To commemorate this momentous state of affairs, we are renaming our Twitter feed FIXBALL IS FECKED.

In the future, blog posts will become less frequent but still hard hitting.
___________________________________________________________________________________

Our time ahead is to be taken up with the FIFAss - a closed-ended hedge fund which is being launched later this month and is already fully subscribed, a mobile phone App offering betting advices, information and support to be released in time for the World Cup, plus club consultancies outside of Britain as the English game is, in the words of Sir Bob Russell MP, "rotten to the core"...
... listen up - not one bad apple but rotten to the core!

In example, our primary Asian broker has provided us with details of the 17 largest bets placed on Premier League games this season...
... 16 have won, one referee has been involved in 8 of the games and another in 6!

WE COULD, IF WE SO WISHED, ENTIRELY DEMOLISH ENGLISH FOOTBALL - WE HAVE BETTING PATTERNS, RECORDED MEETINGS AND PHONE CONVERSATIONS, TESTIMONIES, POLICE RECORDS OF THREATS RECEIVED, FULSOME DETAILS OF SPECIFIC INSIDER TRADING AND MATCH RIGGING AND STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT PATTERNS THAT REVEAL THE CORRUPTIONS UNDERPINNING ENGLISH FOOTBALL AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS.
THE DATA, INFORMATION AND KNOWLEDGE LODGED WITH OUR LAWYERS ARE DAMNING.

IF WE THOUGHT THAT IT WOULD MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE TO THE FUTURE INTEGRITY OF THE ENGLISH GAME, WE WOULD PUBLISH THIS INFORMATION.

BUT IT WOULDN'T.

WHAT IS THE POINT IN FULLY DISCLOSING AND ITEMISING THE MATCH FIXING BY OWNERS, AGENTS, REFEREES AND PLAYERS WHEN THE ORCHESTRATORS OF THE INFRASTRUCTURES THAT ALLOW MATCH FIXING ARE IN THE CORRIDORS OF POWER AT FIFA, UEFA, INTERPOL, THE PREMIER LEAGUE, THE FOOTBALL ASSOCIATION, THE FOOTBALL LEAGUE AND A WHOLE ARRAY OF GLOBAL BOOKMAKERS?

INSTEAD THE FULL PROOF REMAINS AS OUR COLLECTIVE SECURITY.

© Football is Fixed 2006-2013

Friday, 3 January 2014

The Demise Of Glasgow Rangers (As Foretold By Monty Python)


A new owner enters a football club.

New Owner: 'Ello, I wish to register a complaint.

(The Original Owner does not respond.)
NO: 'Ello, Miss?

OO: What do you mean "miss"?
NO: I'm sorry, I have a cold. I wish to make a complaint!

OO: We're closin' for lunch.
NO: Never mind that, my lad. I wish to complain about this football club what I purchased not half an hour ago from this very boutique.

OO: Oh yes, the, uh, the Glasgow Blue...What's,uh...What's wrong with it?
NO: I'll tell you what's wrong with it, my lad. It's dead, that's what's wrong with it!

OO: No, no, it's uh,...it's resting.
NO: Look, matey, I know a dead football club when I see one, and I'm looking at one right now.

OO: No no it's not dead, it's, it's restin'! Remarkable club, the Glasgow Blue, idn'it, ay? Beautiful plumage!
NO: The plumage don't enter into it. It's stone dead.

OO: Nononono, no, no! It's resting!
NO: All right then, if it's restin', I'll wake it up!

(shouting at the table)

'Ello, Mister Football Club! I've got a lovely fresh corruption for you if you show...(original owner hits the table)

OO: There, it moved!
NO: No, it didn't, that was you hitting the table!

OO: I never!!
NO: Yes, you did!

OO: I never, never did anything...
NO: (yelling and hitting the table repeatedly) 'ELLO HUNNY!!!!!

Testing! Testing! Testing! Testing! This is your nine o'clock alarm call!

(Takes football club off the table and thumps its head on the chair. Throws it up in the air and watches it plummet to the floor.)
NO: Now that's what I call a dead football club.

OO: No, no.....No, it's stunned!
NO: STUNNED?!?

OO: Yeah! You stunned him, just as he was wakin' up! Glasgow Blues stun easily, major.
NO: Um...now look...now look, mate, I've definitely 'ad enough of this. That football club is definitely deceased, and when I purchased it not 'alf an hour ago, you assured me that its total lack of movement was due to it bein' tired and shagged out following a prolonged court case.

OO: Well, it's...it's, ah...probably pining for the courts.

NO: PININ' for the COURTS?!?!?!? What kind of talk is that?, look, why did it fall flat on it's back the moment I got it home?

OO: The Glasgow Blue prefers kippin' on it's back! Remarkable club, id'nit, squire? Lovely plumage!
NO: Look, I took the liberty of examining that football club when I got it home, and I discovered the only reason that it had been upright in the first place was that it had been NAILED there.

(pause)

OO: Well, o'course it was nailed there! If I hadn't nailed that club down, it would have nuzzled up to those bars, bent 'em apart, and VOOM! Feeweeweewee!

NO: "VOOM"?!? Mate, this club wouldn't "voom" if you put four million volts through it! It's bleedin' demised!

OO: No no! It's pining!
NO: It's not pinin'! It's passed on! This football club is no more! It has ceased to be! It's expired and gone to meet it's maker!

'It's a stiff! Bereft of life, it rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed it to the ground it'd be pushing up the daisies! It's metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'It's off the twig!
'It's kicked the bucket, it's shuffled off it's mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!!

THIS IS AN EX-FOOTBALL CLUB!!

(pause)

OO: Well, I'd better replace it, then.

(he takes a quick peek behind the table)

OO: Sorry squire, I've had a look 'round the back, and uh, we're right out of Glasgow Blues. They've recently become extinct.
NO: I see. I see, I get the picture.

OO: I got a Sevconian Slug.

(pause)
NO: (sweet as sugar) Pray, does it corrupt relentlessly?

OO: Dunno.

NO: WELL IT'S HARDLY A BLOODY REPLACEMENT, IS IT?!!???!!?



© Football is Fixed 2006-2013

Tuesday, 31 December 2013

Celtic Schisms

Introduction

Celtic FC has a history and a network like no other.

The Irish Republican politics, the ground-breaking Lisbon Lions, the intense support (ask Messi or Maldini), the global fanbase, the web of talented individuals who have given and still freely give their time, money and expertise to advance the club strategically...
... or, in the case of John Keane, to save the club from financial oblivion.

All of the great global football teams have this linkage with history and political purpose and a sense of community.

But the impact of the current fallout between the Celtic financial hierarchy and the real owners of the club, the fans, is a major dysfunction that must be solved immediately before it creates yet more harm for the club.

                        Unfortunately, in postmodern football, history and politics are problems

For five days in September, I had the very best job in the world - a high level consultancy with Celtic to enable passage to the 2nd Phase of the Champions League this season.

Unfortunately Peter Lawwell, in his own heroic way, pulled on the deal.

The holistic of the consultancy was to protect Celtic against corruptions that occur to undermine the strategies of the club in the Champions League.
The irony of the failure to conclude the agreement is obvious.
We are a cellular grouping of forensic analysts revealing corruptions and Celtic are a football team owned by a bookmaker, Dermot Desmond (Betdaq supremo).

We have been informed that it was deemed too risky to proceed with the consultancy in case we came across internal issues in our monitoring of the external.

As a result, the club strategy for this year's Champions League Group Stage was diabolical in the early stages (http://footballisfixed.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/one-love-art-of-war.html).

And it did not improve thereafter.
The same strategic errors were repeated as last season with some new ones thrown in for good measure. No lessons have been learnt and the structure is simply one of the blind paying one another to lead one another blindly.

Nobody within the club hierarchy nor any of the agents leeching onto the club have any perception of UEFA hidden agendas and internal power-plays and linkages etc etc.
The club do not possess the template to even start planning any strategy for Champions League and future European Super League success.

As we are no longer willing to work with the club under the current regime, we are limited as to the solutions that we are able to offer in this place.
But we have found four areas worthy of discussion without impinging on any of our isolationist thresholds.

1. Club Interests Versus Private Agendas

We originally approached Celtic when we were informed via a contact within UEFA that the European governing body were going to be taking a very close look at the Champions League Qualifier between Cliftonville and Celtic in case any politics were seen in the UEFA sphere.

The UEFA Champions League, by and large, is a marketing process.
It is not feasible for Celtic to celebrate their past as this does not fit in with the UEFA brand - pony-tailed ball skills with a pirouette are preferred to anything approaching political reality.

Part of my discussions with Lawwell centred on this very point - he understands totally that the fans are the biggest asset of the club but wishes to cleanse them of their history to optimise European performance and cashflow.

One could call this a strategy (even if one views it as an inappropriate one)...
... but the club then sell short of achieving that 'optimisation' by focus on their own private agendas and connections.
When it comes to push versus shove, club versus self, enlightened self-interest wins the day.

If the club hierarchy are going to sell out on the fans, the history, the raison d'etre and grasp a share of this UEFA nirvana for the Celtic Brand, then surely they need to focus on the success of this brand absolutely rather than allowing their own private considerations to come into play.

At the moment, this is not happening.
__________________________________________________________________________________

2. Politics

Bobby Sands MP, representing the Anti H-Block party, was elected as a member of the British parliament in 1981.

30,493 people voted for him in the Fermanagh and South Tyrone constituency.
There was an 86.9% turnout.
Sands had a public mandate to fight against inappropriate state power and terror...
... exactly the same as Nelson Mandela who was eulogised by UEFA after his death.

When the club were being punished by UEFA for displaying political imagery, why didn't the hierarchy point out the equivalence between the politics and strategies of Sands/IRA when compared with Mandela/ANC?

After all, Cameron wanted Mandela to hang, Thatcher thought him a terrorist and the US agreed by keeping him on their list of global terrorists until 2008 before he was whitewashed into someone else.

Instead the club have allowed their club brand to be demoted in the UEFA marketing pyramid without offering a stout defence.
__________________________________________________________________________________

3. Club Ownership

As we have pointed out before (http://footballisfixed.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/how-to-solve-match-fixing-once-and-for.html) there are potentially issues of integrity when bookmakers own football clubs.

We have NO evidence of inappropriate fixing of Celtic matches due to Desmond/Betdaq link but this is a structure that should generally be regarded as one being primed for shenanigans.

And we are always wary of bookmakers that, like Betdaq, do not allow winning accounts as, after all, if you are not allowed to win off a bookmaker then the business interaction is something else entirely!

There must be occasions when Desmond's personal financial focus is different to that of the club...
... and this must be a concern.

When board members and club agents are known to bet on Celtic matches, is it invalid to express concern that people higher up the hierarchy might conceivably share a similar inclination?

And, as a background, there is something vaguely distasteful about Desmond being £2 million in pocket, Lawwell annually heating his driveway with £700K while the club refuses to pay a Living Wage at the bottom of the pyramid.
__________________________________________________________________________________

4. A Way Forward

The atmosphere at the recent Hearts match was truly depressing.
Things need to change.
And fast.

From our position, we might suggest a discussion based around very basic foundational areas:

Who owns the club? The financial hierarchy or the fans? How might co-ownership be achieved?  What happens when the needs of the club differ from those paid to manage it?

Decisions made in the imminent future will determine the future of Celtic for decades to come.

Time to get strategic. 
__________________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________________

For Celtic to be self-harming in this window of massive monopolistic competitive opportunity in Scotland is a crying shame.
To waste all this energy turning inwards rather than planning for a brighter future in the European Super League is only helping one team, Sevconians.

And Lawwell was wrong on this too...
... Sevconians are not an imitation of a reality in the sense of Rory Bremner doing Tony Blair, because the real Tony Blair (unfortunately) still exists while the comedian performs his parallel.

Sevconians are actually a posthumous tribute act - just like a Michael Jackson one or an Elvis one...
... only with weaker songs.

Rangers no longer exist and Sevconians merely allow a little nostalgia and reminiscence for those who still care.

Rangers are the past. Not the future. 
Just mock them.

Hail Hail Hogmanay!


                                      For The Sake Of All Their Crimes - Billy No'Well


© Football is Fixed 2006-2013 

Friday, 13 December 2013

How To Solve Match Fixing Once And For All

Yesterday, Liberal Democrat MP Sir Bob Russell said that English professional football is "rotten to the core" and that a Royal Commission is required to clean up football with "parasitic agents" being the major problem.

If any such Royal Commission is to work then it will need to thoroughly address the six points outlined below.
Otherwise the game is up.
 
Also yesterday, UEFA announced that they are drafting an 11-point plan aimed to eradicate match-fixing, labelling it their 'top priority'.

Unfortunately, skimming over the pitch put forward by the aptly named UEFA general secretary Gianni Infantino, we can only expect peripheral tinkering akin to that achieved by the British government's select committee who reported last summer.
__________________________________________________________________________________

On Tuesday night, there was a highly suspicious match between FC Bayern and Manchester City in the UEFA Champions League (http://footballisfixed.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/was-fc-bayern-versus-manchester-city-fix.html) (http://footballisfixed.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/the-fixing-of-champions-league-games.html).

We may be polemical but there is evidently a case to be answered here.
This is a suspicious event between the Champions League holders and the richest club in the world!
And media silence.

Instead UEFA claim only 0.7% of matches are fixed and the mainstream media in Britain focuses on Whitehawk FC and DJ Campbell.

Infantino also indicated that UEFA want to strengthen the links between sports authorities and state bodies but this is a structure that can backfire dependent on who represents the state - there are many countries where state interference would only serve to increase the corruption.

We are employed by clubs as leech consultants.
We protect clubs against systemic and particular corruptions against their interests.
We analyse the zeitgeist of corruption.

To us, the most astonishing aspect of the match fixing 'crisis' is that when we have seen that government, the mainstream media, investment banking, the police, retail banks, the utilities, many other sports are all corrupted, there is this religious belief that, somehow, top level football is not tainted.
Football has taken over from religion - everybody is 'Something FC 'til I Die'.
And we don't want our New Deity to be killed off just yet.

But if football really wants to save itself from the neohyperrealities of the present systemic corruptions, it needs to implement every single one of the points below in their entirety.

No pseudo-11 point plan but an overhaul of an entirely corrupt mechanism from top to bottom.
But starting at the top.

DJ Campbell Is Innocent!
_________________________________________________________________________________

1. The Betting Markets and Insider Trading

The primary concern are the global betting markets.
There are three levels of market activity - the public markets, the Dark Pools and the illegal underground markets based largely but not exclusively in South East Asia.

With a global network of this type, there has to be global regulation with jail sentences and life bans for miscreants.
The global betting market turnover on football is thought to have reached £1 trillion.
£1 trillion is 40% of the Britain's annual GDP!!

All markets must be public.
All trading by insiders must be registered with a Commitment of Traders body to prevent inside knowledge being exploited.
All players, referees, agents, managers should be banned from betting entirely.
All suspicious betting must be reported to forensic analysts to detect fraudulent behaviour - the current level of expertise exhibited by Early Warning, Interpol/ Europol etc is not professional enough (we are able to detect insider betting and match fixing in many more games than 0.7%!!).
All spot-markets should be banned.
All Dark Pool activity must be regulated and made public, the same with the Asian underground and the developing undergrounds in Dubai, the Caribbean, numerous British offshore territories, Moscow, Tel Aviv, Tbilisi, Nigeria, Australia, the US and Canada, Brazil, Mumbai etc.

2. Agents and the Markets

Every single football agent that I have ever met has been criminalised!

Agents are a lubricant in the game and, in addition to leeching money from the sport, they facilitate corruptions relating to both the betting markets and the transfer markets.

Ownership of goalkeepers, linkage with referees (see below), multiple ownership of players in a game, even more extensive multiple ownership via linkage with other agents in a fragmented cartel of illicit match fixing and betting market activity.
Accordingly agents not only distort, corrupt and profit from the betting markets that they exploit, they degenerate the sport and impact upon trophies being won and relegations/ promotions etc.
The careers of players are also affected by these corruptions and the fan is forced to watch events where the outcome is clearly visible in underground betting markets pre-match!

Agents corrupt Champions League games at the highest level and yet UEFA do nothing.

Agents also, as is their wont, exploit the transfer market via 3rd party ownership.

There is no regulation for agents.
And no regulation or self-regulation is pointless.
Agents distort every single aspect of the sport and often utilise business practices that border on the slave trade when it comes to footballers from Africa and certain South and Central American countries.
Coercion of players relating to the betting markets is a major issue.
Additionally, under the table payments are the norm and ownership networks are structured similarly to the Tor proxy server concept!

Agents must be regulated.

3. Club Owners

Surely it is asking for trouble if club owners double as bookmakers.

There will inevitably be occasions when the financial self-interest of Mr Bet 365 The Bookmaker will trump the interests of Mr Bet 365 The Football Club (Stoke City) - the only issue is whether such self-interest is implemented.
Additionally, this incentive to fix can result in club owners stopping their own teams from winning to the absolute detriment of the fans who are paying the wages and the integrity of the game.

All club ownership should be open rather than underground and opaque.
Fit and proper persons rulings should be robust and thoroughly implemented - the Championship in England is a veritable Hotch Potch of Inappropriates when it comes to club ownership...
... and the Premier League is only marginally better.

4. Referees

Referees are an issue.
Relatively underpaid in a millionaire's paradise, they are ripe for corruption.

Referees are chosen from too small a pool (only 18 for the Premier League - the most liquid betting market on the planet, for example) and have very long careers.
Market ownership of a referee is a big earner for both parties.
Referees are additionally 'owned' by other participants in the game - clubs, mafia, even UEFA chooses referees relating to its own annual marketing plan AND the importance of allegiance to the G14(18) power base of clubs.

If referees were selected meritocratically then corruption from this source would be harder to implement.
To this end, the ratings of referees need to be made public and the implementation of video technology (see next point) will enable 'under-achievers' to be rooted out and discarded.

5. Video Technology

It is more critical for football to have video technology than cricket, tennis or rugby yet the authorities refuse to introduce anything more than goalline technology. Why?

An incorrect wicket in cricket, line call in tennis or try in rugby is rarely match changing yet those sports guard against such occurrences by using technology ...
... in football a goal or a penalty or a sending off very frequently is a match changing event and yet we have virtually nothing.

Up to 40 wickets in a Test Match, 240 points in a tennis match, half a dozen tries in a game of rugby...
... and one goal.

Furthermore, because professional footballers are well aware of the corruptions taking place, once a referee signals his intent, there is a psychological deflation in the victim team.

The most striking aspect of watching cricket or rugby is how fan conversation always relates to the game itself due to the utilisation of video technology for virtually all contentious decisions.
This serves to produce the correct result, massively reduce corruption and act as a measurement of performance of referees and umpires.

The argument that it would slow down the game is fatuous.

It would add excitement if marketed correctly.
UEFA and the Premier League would be able to bombard us with messages from their media partners while we waited to see if it is a penalty or not!

6. Whistleblowing Hotline

When we have meetings with administrative bodies, chief executives, football managers, club owners, analysts, bookmakers, many fans, there is acceptance that football is corrupt but that nobody is going to do anything about it due to both financial self-interest and fear.

Remember Mike Newell? He soon disappeared from the game!

A global whistleblowing hotline needs to be set up to allow knowledge of match fixing to be made available to the various bodies that will need to be established for Points 1-5 to be achieved.
This must be anonymous and rewarded.
__________________________________________________________________________________

People like ourselves who receive threats and menaces due to their efforts to expose football that is "riddled with corruption" need to be protected.

The sport is flooded with mafiosi interests - at the moment, I am enjoying extensive conversations with a contact over the role of Serbian mafia in Italian and Serbian football and the role of Albanian mafia in the Austrian game.

But such groups are only able to exploit the integrity of football due to an entire lack of regulation in many areas and loopholes elsewhere.
If FIFA and UEFA eliminated these distortions, we could have betting markets on a level playing field and football would not be fixed. 


We are taking serious existential risks to disclose these neohyperrealities of modern football.

THIS IS NOT HOW IT SHOULD BE.

__________________________________________________________________________________

NB: Please note that myself or other members of our cellular body are available for media in this window. 
You can reach us via a Direct Message at Twitter (@footballisfixed) or via email (footballisfixed02@googlemail.com).


© Football is Fixed 2006-2013

Thursday, 12 December 2013

Football Markets Are Not The Only Markets That Are Fecked

Eugene Fama was one of three winners of the Nobel Prize for Economics this year.

His hypothesis regarding the efficiency of financial markets is indeed elegant (which sometimes is enough for an award to be made) but it is also utterly and completely wrong.
Not particularly impressed with his Fama-French Three-Factor Model either (but more on that later).

If there were no government interferences, no psychopathies, no behavioural irrationalities, no corruptions nor criminalities and if market sectors didn't always evolve towards maturity, he would be right.
But as these inputs drive all markets, the laureate is surely wrong.

Fama's Efficient Markets Hypothesis was put forward in 1970 and formed an intellectual basis for the shock doctrine disaster neo-capitalism that the world has experienced since.
By being a part of the "intellectual" framework gathered as an neo-con edifice at the University of Chicago, Fama bears some responsibility for this sociopathic system.

So, what is Gene's hypothesis and why is it incorrect?

The Efficient Markets Hypothesis is split into three levels - strong-form, semi-strong-form and weak-form efficiency.
Strong-form suggests that market prices reflect all information, public and private, and it is not possible for anyone to earn excess returns.
In semi-stong-form, prices adjust to new information rapidly and rationally.
While in weak-form structures, prices simply follow a random walk.

Before we go any further we need to look at the architecture of markets.
The public markets are just the top of an iceberg of submerged Dark Pool markets - there are hundreds of unregulated Dark Pools where insiders trade against insiders in markets that the public only sees when an excess of over-enthusiasm occurs. It is in these markets that the big market plays are made not the public ones.

For all assessments of Fama's Hypothesis, therefore, it will need to be addressed on two levels - the public markets and the Dark Pools.

1) The most dominant input to the wrongness of Fama's Hypothesis is behaviouralism.
Work in the sixties by Daniel Kahnemann, Amos Tversky, Paul Slovic and Richard Thaler had already introduced psychology to the market and, in 1979, Kahnemann and Tversky developed Prospect Theory which represented the final psychological nail in the coffin of Efficient Markets. Investors do not behave in a rational manner in the marketplace for a whole continuum of different reasons that both exist within themselves and also interact in complex ways between themselves to produce the behaviours that we project. Market prices represent mass human psychology far more than they do unproved economic fundamentals.
So by 1979, Fama's Hypothesis should have been put to bed...
... unfortunately, it took the blinkered Chicago School until 2007 to acknowledge the impact of behaviouralism in markets, attempting to convince us in the meantime that an efficient pricing infrastructure underpinned the alleged validity of Friedmanian late capitalism..

Slavoj Žižek: "The problem is today when you have chaos or disorder, people lose their cognitive mapping."

2) All of the information is not in the market. Even if behaviouralism did not exist and we were all perfectly rational in all of our decision-making, efficient markets would be compromised on all three levels of Fama's efficiency hierarchy.
Public markets are largely inefficient being too far from the core Dark Pools to be benefiting instantaneously to the flow of real information. The public markets offer a distilled filtered form of this driving underground Dark Pool marketplace. Dark Pool trading strategies become converted into a holistic market strategy as Dark Pool liabilities are hedged in the public sphere.

What about the Dark Pools?
Are they a proof of Fama efficiencies?

No.
Behaviouralism is a "plug in" in any market, public or Dark Pool.
Additionally, the information flow in Dark Pools is, by its very nature, opaque.
Proxy trading, algorithmic distortions, hidden players away from the table, consortia strategies, disinformational trading, cornered markets etc etc.
At any given time, the market tends to inefficiency.
As mature markets might evolve into anything the primary operators desire, the price can be anything too.

Mature markets (and these are the ones most traded in the Dark Pools) are largely under the absolute control of a small grouping of operations, think OPEC. Individual members of OPEC have their own hidden agendas over and above the shared agenda with fellow members. Even when the structure is held in place with extra robustness due to government scaffolding around the market, the major player(s) is/are still able to make the market whatever they desire whenever they desire.
In effect monopolistic corruption distorts any semblance of efficiency in the market while duopolistic or cartel behaviour offers a slightly diluted version of the same.

3) Disaster capitalism undermines any efficiency in any financial market.
The Friedmanian disaster capitalism complex thrives on chaos. When a disaster strikes or, as in the case of Chile, is created, the Chicago school Hayekians move in with their shock tactics to further destabilise an already destabilised people. As US security entities move into the vacuum, the markets are utterly chaotic. Although some efficiency and robustness is added to the marketplace ironically by the strategies of these security operations (the same template being micro-adjusted from territory to territory) the holistic performance of the markets is driven by irrationalities and the efficiencies fall off the bottom of Fama's ratings chart.

4) Private information is introduced to the market in a variety of strategies that, by their very nature, imply market inefficiencies being created for the advantage of Dark Pool operations.
Knowledge within a company, governmental or central bank policies, trading disinformation for future profits, competitive market poker play all are based around the possession of the ultimate power play for the marketplace. Just think of the variety of ways in which, say, Ben Bernanke could have utilised his absolute knowledge of the variables related to quantitative easing. An individual, with evolving strategies, could make money without the full reality hitting the market by placing trades laterally and peripherally.

Noam Chomsky would call this "cogntive regulatory capture" and it is a structure typical of late capitalism.

5) The most obvious way in which financial markets are inefficient is by their refusal to accept the cost of externalities in the price of an asset.
How on earth can a price be efficient in the holistic sense if externalities are not included in the calculation? The price can only be considered in any way efficient in short time frames as, when the true costs are included, the asset value is very different indeed. The timing of this market implosion can be an unknown variable.

Friedmanism underprices risk and ignores externalities.
The eventual impact of these externalities is infrastructurally significant.

Andrew Haldane, who should have been made governor of the Bank of England, calls this "disaster myopia".

Disaster myopia in disaster capitalism complex!

Although Dark Pools are displaced up the efficiency hierarchy due to lack of time lag and the primary element in the insider trading, the market increase in efficiency is only marginal and only due to corrupting inputs being introduced to the market price.
If all corrupt inputs in a mature market could be known and assessed both singly and in association with one another, only then might a corrupt market approach strong-form efficiency and in a non-regulated marketplace this is simply not going to occur.

Which brings us to the conclusion of yet another aspect of the fake of Friedmanism.

Fama's only other claim to fame is the Fama-French Three-Factor Model.
This attempts to replace the old Capital Asset Pricing Model (which, by the way, is also inadequate).
Needless to say the Three-Factor model doesn't work as it ignores corruption and behaviouralism.

Entertainingly, Foye, Mramor and Pahor (2013) have shown an improvement in the performance of the Fama-French model if one of the terms is replaced by a term that acts as a proxy for accounting manipulation!

These papers are amongst the first tentative steps of economics crawling towards holistically analysing the hyperreality.

Benoît Mandelbrot: "Financial economics, as a discipline, is where Chemistry was in the 16th century: a messy compendium of proven know-how, misty folk wisdom, and unexamined assumptions and grandiose speculation."

As a former pupil of Mandelbrot, Fama should know better...
... grandiose models, unexamined inputs, misty economic wisdom mixed with the status quo.

And, anyway, as economics in rather dubious fashion claims to be a science, let's address it as such...

Michel Foucault: "If one recognises in science only the linear accumulation of truths or the orthogenesis of reason, and fails to recognise in it the discursive practice that has its own levels, its own thresholds, its own various ruptures, one can describe only a single historical division, which one adopts as a model to be applied at all times for all forms of knowledge."

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed

© Football is Fixed 2006-2013  

Monday, 9 December 2013

Ten Fixed Matches


While the mainstream media focuses on Afro-Caribbean, South Asian and Singaporean match fixers as opposed to the largely white Caucasian expanse of managers, players, referees, owners, agents, bookmakers, administrators, commentators, media analysts and a former senior government individual who are systemically corrupting the English game, we provide you with ten matches involving English teams that were conspiratorially fixed and/or involved excessive insider trading.

We take these matches from all levels of the game in England across half a decade to demonstrate how widespread the corruption is.
  • Manchester United v Real Madrid (Champions League 2012/13) - agent control/ insider betting
  • Manchester United v Crystal Palace (Premier League 2013/14) - fixed match/ insider betting
  • Portsmouth v Fulham (Premier League 2007/08) - fixed match/ Reading relegated
  • Wigan v Tottenham (Premier League 2008/09) - insider betting
  • Fulham v Wigan (Premier League 2007/08) - fixed match/ insider betting
  • West Brom v Manchester United (Premier League 2012/13) - competing insider betting in 5-5 draw
  • Finland U-21s v England U21s (European Championships 2013/14) - fixed match/ insider betting
  • Norwich v West Ham (Premier League 2013/14) - fixed match/ insider betting
  • Barnet v Macclesfield (League Two 2011/12) - fixed match/ insider betting
  • Buxton v Stocksbridge Park Steels (Northern Premier League Premier Division 2013/14) - fixed match 
Marcus Gayle: “I never thought match fixing was possible. But now I have changed my mind, for obvious reasons. Now, I am convinced it’s all over the place."

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed
© Football is Fixed 2006-2013

Wednesday, 4 December 2013

Run Those Neohyperrealities Past Me Again


Insider gamblers are still targeting English Premier League games.
We have detected SIX matches where insider trading occurred since the announcement of the "biggest scandal in decades" last week.
There have only been 11 games in this window. 

Not all insider gambles represent fixed matches, of course.
But some do. 

And, anyway, why should insiders be betting at all?

Some forms of corruption have been eliminated from the Premier League Market Profile this season.
Other forms of corruption have moved in their place as is always the case when a reality has morphed through "the phases of the image" to a neohyperreality.

Just six days ago, the Daily Telegraph announced that its investigation had revealed agent-led match-fixing in English football.
The newspaper claimed that this was the biggest scandal in decades to hit the English game.
By Saturday, all traces of this "biggest scandal in decades" had been removed from the Telegraph and all other mainstream media in England.

Meanwhile, on Saturday it was revealed that agents had taken nearly £100 million from the Premier League in the year to September 2013.
This represented an increase in take of 25%.
There were virtually no references to this in the mainstream media.

When this "biggest scandal in decades" was reported, newspapers with close links to agents didn't allow 'comments' and there were considerable column inches desperately separating this corruption from any link to the Premier League.
This despite the Premier League being the biggest betting market on the planet.

So the only questions of consequence are these...

1) At what point did this charade become a charade?
2) What the hell happened to this "biggest scandal in decades"?

Jean Baudrillard: "These would be the successive phases of the image:

1) It is the reflection of a basic reality.
2) It masks and perverts a basic reality.
3) It masks the absence of a basic reality.
4) It bears no relation to any reality whatever: it is its own pure simulacrum."

Football has become a fifth level of these phases of the image.

Football not only bears no relation to any reality whatever but also the constituents that determine the fake realities within this simulacrum are themselves hyperreal too.

Football is a neohyperreality. 

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed
 
© Football is Fixed 2006-2013

Monday, 2 December 2013

The Dirty Dozen - The Role Of Agents In The Criminalisation Of Football

How Agents Are Destroying Football


1. Many firms of agents have an interest in the global betting markets. Some firms specifically target goalkeepers, for example. A very high percentage of the sixty plus betting scandals to be currently under investigation feature agents as facilitators due to the way in which agents seemlessly lubricate the system.

2. Betting interest soon morphs into market control. preferably in-house otherwise in a fragmented cartel. There are a variety of tipping points where the critical mass of the control of a match corruption is reached. Matches are fixed via participants on behalf of their agents. Agents target both club and international matches.

3. Player loyalty to club is increasingly a rare factor in football nowadays. Players have an agent for life (pre to post career) and any number of clubs. Badge-kissing is simply marketing the brand of the self. Clubs that employ several players from the same firm of agents or from a web-like cartel of agents risk losing control of their matches although some of the better run clubs limit such exposure as a matter of strategy e.g. FC Bayern, Milan, Barcelona and Blackpool.

4. Once control of a very liquid betting market becomes the focus of agents/ cartel of agents' attention then control of those lily-livered reprobates, the referees, becomes the primary strategy. At the poker table of postmodern football, one goalkeeper + the referee is a very strong hand indeed. Referees are underpaid outliers with football envy - psychologically many referees are desperate for 'acceptance' within the game. Media silence and retirement hush money aid any shenanigans.

5. Once an agent/ cartel is seen to be influencing market outcomes, market makers and bookmakers enter stage right. Hence surface level criminalised trading migrates to the European and Asian underworlds, undergrounds and offshore financial centres. It is not surprising that a £1 trillion annual market attracts such intricate infrastructures.

6. Agents bleed the game of money that should be going to grass roots projects. For the year ending September 2013, agents took virtually £100 million from the Premier League (over £2.5 million for every round of games).This was a 25% increase and elicited no mainstream media attention in a week where the words 'agents' and 'match-fixing' kept appearing in the same sentences.

7. Due to loyalty to self/ agent rather than club, a perverse incentive means many players will perform fully only when playing in live tv matches with massively increased global exposure. Similarly, 'injuries' and choice of timing for operations etc are determined by agent not by the club.

8. Agents always boast about the black market sides of their job - the under-the-table illicit payments to drop interests in a player, the insider gamble that the bookies couldn't stop. Agents take far more than £100 million out of the English game in the grey and black market sectors.

9. Agents undertake mainstream media control for the promotion of their clients, the suppression of inappropriate news and reality leakages, the advancement of transfer strategies and, in the case of the Guardian, the 'creation' of an entirely fictitious neohyperreality in the form of the Secret Footballer. How apt that, with editorial involvement, a newspaper that robbed the secrets from Wikileaks and Snowden should create their very own imaginary secrets via a fake entity linked to a leading football agent!

10. There is no regulation of agents. Consequently, all agents eventually, if not initially, become linked to mafia - this is the only evolution feasible in Friedmanian capitalism in a sector that is entirely non-regulated. Market Maturity = Monopolistic Mafia. Although agents police themselves, a whole variety of mafia groups police the agents.

11. Third Party Agreements are not only still the norm but Fourth and Fifth Party ones exist too. Self-regulation means, in effect, no regulation as agents create the necessary infrastructure to allow them to optimise their operations.

12. Top agents have links to government in Britain (both Labour and Tory). Bizarrely, agents and (the limited) control of a hugely liquid global financial market that they bring are one of the few hyperreal growth areas in our austerity-wrecked post-imperial wasteland of a fake-service economy. Of course, government cannot boast this economic success story: "our match-fixing and market distortions are bringing jobs to Britain..."

When a former player-turned-agent Delroy Facey was named as a key operator in Invisiblegate - the English match-fixing scandal which allegedly happened last week - we expected an imminent media blackout, a separation of the Premier League from any allegations of match-fixing and a markedly legitimate weekend in the Premier League. And that is what we got. It was just like the old days. No sendings off and just one penalty (to Manchester United, of course). No controversy. We cannot find any other weekend in our databases with so little referee influence. What a remarkable fluke!

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed
© Football is Fixed 2006-2013

 

Friday, 29 November 2013

Surfing The Zeitgeist Of Corruption

On November 25th 2011 there was a fixed League Two match involving Barnet and Macclesfield.

Barnet won 2-1 via two penalties from Izale McLeod and the later sending off of Roy Draper just two minutes after Macclesfield had pulled a goal back.

The referee for this event was Dean Whitestone.
He is still an active official, his last refereeing spot being QPR's 1-0 victory over Charlton and he is selected as 4th Official for several Premier League games per season.

The current Lincoln City manager Gary Simpson was manager of Macclesfield at the time of this fixed match.
He reported his suspicions to the authorities.

Simpson: "I was told there had been an irregular betting pattern on it [the game] during the game and before the game... We heard from the authorities that it was correct and there had been an irregular betting pattern in the game."

So.
A fixed match.
Apparent involvement of a referee according to Simpson.
Knowledge of event by authorities.
No action.  

Yesterday the Football Conference put out a statement: "The Football Conference takes all matters relating to the integrity of the game very seriously but it cannot make any comment on today's story as it would be inappropriate to do so."

And the impact was considerable in football terms in that Macclesfield were relegated from the Football League in season 2011/12 while Barnet finished third-bottom.
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On October 29th 2008 there was a fixed Premier League match involving Fulham and Wigan Athletic.

Fulham (managed by Roy Hodgson) won 2-0 with two goals by Andy Johnson who was so certain that he would score that he revealed a t-shirt boasting of such even though he hadn't scored a goal for 7 months. He boasted of his prior knowledge on the Match of the Day interview post-game.

There were irregular betting patterns on the game.

We posted a blog about this event and, two days later, received threats and menaces of the 'we know where you live' variety. 
These emails were traced to the London offices of a leading football agent who was closely associated with the Fulham/Wigan fix.
We informed this individual of our forensics and went to the police.

Later, we approached Paul Kelso of the Daily Telegraph over this fixed event when Hodgson became manager of England - Kelso was the Chief Sports Reporter of the Telegraph.
His refusal to meet despite betting patterns, testimonies, evidence was assumed to be related to previous work co-operations with the agent at a different newspaper.

Yet it is now the Telegraph that is exposing lower league and international match corruption in English, Irish and Scottish football.

To say that we are curious about Telegraph attention on the shit that rises to the top would be an understatement worthy of note!
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This investigation into corruption in the English game CANNOT be allowed to continue to its fruition as figures at the very summit of British society and the game will be implicated - administrators, senior government ministers, club owners, newspaper editors, managers, referees, players, agents, lawyers, commentators, football writers, ex-players, accommodating European-based bookmakers, the entire business hierarchies of the Isle of Man, Gibraltar, Jersey and Guernsey, the mafiosi groups of several British cities...

Gordon Taylor's betting millions are just the tip of the iceberg.

Oh!
And he's still in a job, isn't he? 

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed

© Football is Fixed 2006-2013

Thursday, 26 September 2013

Leech Consultancy - The Twilight Zone



                                       A Leech Consultant Settling Down At The Desk

Leeching: To feed, a leech attaches itself to a human or animal through suckers at each end of its body and then eats its host's blood. Leeches can eat six to eight times their body weight, but rather than sinking to the bottom of the body of water, leeches produce a natural anticoagulant or blood thinner, which keeps the blood in them from thickening and clotting and allows them to stay mobile.

Leech consultants optimise performance.

All cutting edge bodies understand the quest to gain robust competitive advantage, they seek leech consultants.

Leeches sit on the threshold between white markets and grey but spend all of their time forensically analysing the grey and, in particular, the black markets.
Especially in mature market late capitalism.

Take football.
No institution, club, bookmaker, agent or association can admit the extent to which insider gambling has spread through the sport like a rampant cancer.
Recent arrests in Australia, Singapore and El Salvador (where five players with more than 50 international appearances are implicated) together with the banning of numerous clubs has to be held at the marketing damage limitation level of  "a few bad apples" - activities undertaken by poorly paid fringe players in peripheral territories often influenced by rogue South East Asian underground markets.

But the corruption is far more central to the FIFA Football Family than that.
Yet this cannot be made public and cannot be acknowledged.

Many loci within the game are desperate for this knowledge.

Without such knowledge, people in the "sport" are unable to protect themselves from corruptions perpetrated against their interests.
Strategic defence is the name of the modern game.

Leech consultancy bridges this divide.
We stretch their belief mechanisms regarding the degree of corruption across the football continuum.
To achieve this happy state of affairs, leech consultants attach themselves to individuals in a hierarchy (usually 1 or 2 people) and improve the performance of the body.
They provide sustenance and we provide good health.

Of course, there is a branch of leech consultancy that enacts strategic exploitation but that is an entirely different form of leech consultancy known as the sociopathic.

But one thing is certain.
At least it is not a distorted state of affairs when leech consultancy in partially criminalised sectors is more performative to the system than, say, being a teacher, for example.

Much more interestingly...
Is "the universe a three-dimensional surface of a four-sphere"?

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed

© Football is Fixed 2006-2013