Thursday 31 October 2013

Bloom In Brighton

                                                             Lizard With Chips

Honore de Balzac: "Behind every great fortune lies a great crime."

The key angle regarding Brighton and Hove Albion FC and Tony Bloom is whether the owner bets on the matches of his own club and, particularly, whether such insider trading is ever against Brighton.

But first some background...

Bloom was my broker in the mid-nineties when he moved to Bangkok to make his tax-free millions trading on the underground Asian markets.
Bloom does his 'analyses' for weekend matches on the Friday night and would frequently telephone during the evening asking for privileged data and information regarding specific matches.
Bloom needed to complete his work prior to the Asian markets opening for business on the Saturday morning when millions could be placed on matches.
Bloom is a slippery lizard-like customer so, to ensure that winnings were paid, all communications had to be recorded.

Bloom's 'analyses' of football matches are highly dependent on player 'analysis' so team selection is critical.
Bloom understood that Gus Poyet, as a man of integrity, would not allow him to influence team selection for proprietary trading purposes but he nonetheless used to phone Poyet for Brighton team information every Friday evening.
Bloom insisted on this. And it had to be the Friday evening. No later. Now why would that be?

Now insider trading on football is not illegal.
As we pointed out yesterday, the global turnover on football betting is 40% of the annual GDP of the British economy so there are any number of people who have the incentive to take advantage of inside information.
The only issue in this area is the one of integrity.
How would Brighton fans feel if Bloom, on occasion, bet against his own club in order to enhance his property empire?

The easiest insider bet is always the one against your own club, for obvious reasons of "control".
This is why Ian Black of Sevco FC and former Accrington Stanley director Robert Heys bet against their teams. And it is why many goalkeepers are targeted by corrupt agents and mafiosi.

We believe that one of the primary reasons that Bloom took his ridiculous action against Poyet was because betting routes were being denied to him despite requests. Gus thinks this also.

When we first provided Richard Bevan of the League Managers' Association with our combined knowledges of Bloom's modes of business, he wished to take action immediately but Gus Poyet's legal wrangles cut across any such strategy.

However, Bloom chases the dragon when it comes to money and Brighton fans should be aware that when push comes to shove, the Lizard will put his own needs ahead of the club. You are merely a vehicle for Bloom PLC.

And so we ask the question again - SHOULD PROFESSIONAL GAMBLERS OWN FOOTBALL CLUBS?

NB Following these disclosures Bloom and Brighton and Hove Albion reached an out-of-court settlement to the financial benefit of Gus Poyet which was what we had predicted all along.
Bloom offers pounds to stop publicity. 

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed
© Football is Fixed 2006-2013

Wednesday 30 October 2013

Introducing SKWBs

Some Mancunian reprobate economist (Jim O'Neill formerly of Goldman Sachs) came up with the acronym BRICs for Brazil, Russia, India and China - the emerging economies that were allegedly challenging the economic might of the G7 economies.
Of course, in reality, the monopoly of US hyperimperialism was shifting to a duopoly of China and the US disaster capitalism - CUs rather than BRICs.

For the build up to the FIFA 2014, we would like to suggest a similar acronym for the players who will be selected for Roy Hodgson's England squad - SKWBs - representing the four firms of agents that Mr Hodgson shows a bias towards - Stellar, Key Sports, Wasserman, Base.

To reiterate...
Agents operate competitively but some also form fragmented cartels to ensure mutual benefits.
So 13 members of the Euro 2012 squad came from Stellar, Key Sports, Wasserman and Base (Hodgson is himself represented by Base).
And for the recent round of England internationals and Under-21 games, over 50% of the squads came from these four agencies.

Indeed, Key Sports only have 12 players on their books who could feasibly play for England or England U-21's and every single one of them has been selected!  
John Colquhoun, a partner in Key Sports, was Fulham, West Brom and Liverpool club agent during Hodgson's time at the clubs and these two individuals go back a long way.

See http://footballisfixed.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/happy-anniversary-to-roy-hodgson.html
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There are two primary issues with this mismanagement.

1. Meritocracy

With such a bias in who is selected for England squads, players who choose to be represented by agents other than the above risk being left out in the cold when World Cup selection occurs.
Hence careers are restricted by non-competitive bias or...
... players are "persuaded" or "coerced" into switching their representation to SKWBs to ensure valid career development.

Additionally, due to the massively distorted nature of footballing finances, there is an entirely illegal arbitrage available to Mr Hodgson and the firms of agents should they select to choose such a route.

See http://footballisfixed.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/kick-out-kickbacks-for-kick-off.html

2. Match Fixing 

The annual global underground betting turnover on football is $1.02 trillion - £650 billion.

The annual United Kingdom (sic) GDP is only $2.45 trillion - £1593 billion.

So...
... a lot of money is bet on football.

Aside from making the lack of regulation regarding insider trading glaringly apparent (there are no obstacles to fixing football matches so long as such corruption occurs within the elite loop), such financial figures also demonstrate what amounts of dirty money can be generated by control of match outcomes.

See http://footballisfixed.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/stellar-returns.html
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We are going to be monitoring Mr Hodgson and his cronies very very closely in the lead up to the FIFA World Cup 2014.

Because we think that the scum and scabs will scam to the benefit of SKWBs.

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed

© Football is Fixed 2006-2013

Tuesday 29 October 2013

Should Professional Gamblers Own Football Clubs?

                           When Is A Goal Not A Goal? When The Betting Market Says So!

Last night, Watford's Fernando Forestieri was denied a goal at Brighton when the ball had clearly crossed the line.
The "mistake" by referee Keith Hill and his assistant prevented Watford taking all three points from the match.

Watford manager Gianfranco Zola was not a happy man: ""Everyone has seen it apart from the referee and the officials. That is the disappointing part – the goal did not happen in a crowded area, there was only the player, the ball and the line and it has not been seen."

Forestieri also had a clear penalty decision turned down by Hill. 

The interesting part, however, is what happened next and the background to the match.

We are helping Sunderland manager Gus Poyet in his legal action for wrongful dismissal against Brighton and Hove Albion.
Poyet was dismissed for his reaction to somebody spreading excrement around the Crystal Palace dressing room in last season's Championship Play Off Semi Final between the teams.
For background see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/when-shit-hits-fans-implosion-of.html

Poyet, with the support of  Richard Bevan of the League Managers' Association, is not only claiming wrongful dismissal but is also looking into the professional gambling activities of Brighton owner, Tony Bloom.

Bloom, a former bookmaker, used to contact Poyet asking for inside information on matches where Gus had links.
So there would be phonecalls asking Poyet to contact, say, Roberto di Matteo about team selections and tactics which might impact upon Bloom's trading in the underground betting markets in Thailand. Or asking Gus to phone Diego Forlan for inside information on Inter Milan games.
Poyet to his credit always refused.

The televised match last night had a non-public background.
For Watford are owned by the Pozzo family who also take an interest in betting on the underground markets.

We have been informed this morning that some Watford players are suggesting that money changed hands.
We are not able to comment on who allegedly paid such monies nor who was in receipt but there was considerable insider betting on the match in both directions.

The Championship...
... a club owned by a gambling family and sponsored by an Asian bookmaker, 138.com, are denied a legitimate goal and a penalty against a club owned by one of the biggest European insider gamblers in a very active betting market.

We will be chatting to Mr Poyet later today!

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed

© Football is Fixed 2006-2013

Monday 28 October 2013

Joe Hart - Joke Head, Coke Head Or Just Crooked?


"Keeper's. Fucking keeper's" muttered Joe Hart to himself.

"Keeper. Fucking keeper" responded the Manchester City fans.

                                                       The Hart Of A Fixer?

Following the latest in the continuum of errors in high-profile games by Joe Hart at Stamford Bridge yesterday, Manuel Pellegrini is refusing to publicly back his problematical goalkeeper.
Others are less polite.
An analyst at Ligue1 Analytics suggested that Hart has "the heart of a fixer" after the almost identical error in Moscow earlier in the week.
If Hart were a horse, he would be labelled a potential non-trier and have a Timeform squiggle after his name.

We outlined the issues with Hart back in February http://footballisfixed.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/what-is-joe-hart-up-to.html but in this post we are going further by detailing the 5 modes of underperformance that afflict Hart's performances and the murky holistics behind Joe Hart that are poisoning the English game at both club and international level.
__________________________________________________________________________________

Joe Hart's Methods

1) Waiting for a long through ball that will fall short of his penalty area, racing out but mis-timing run allowing attacker to lob him or slot the ball past him (eg Chelsea yesterday, Aston Villa and CSKA Moscow).
2) Letting saveable shots through weak hands, particularly on his near post (eg Scotland and FC Bayern).
3) Screaming wildly at his defensive wall on dangerous free kicks prior to misplacing the wall and, for that matter, himself (eg Aston Villa and Manchester United in 2-3 defeat last season).
4) Transferring weight onto the wrong foot so appears flat-footed and stationary as the ball enters the net (eg Southampton away last year).
5) Failing to stay on his line or to come for a cross before flailing his wrong arm at the resulting headers as they pass him (Wigan in the FA Cup Final and Eire).

Generally, these "errors" result in restorative performances in the next match.
And this is the rub with dodgy goalkeepers.
If their underperformances and mistakes are occasional and random then we are looking at one issue...
... if such errors and lack of professionalism are in very very key events then we are looking at an entirely different issue.

And then there is the issue of betting patterns.

Manchester City fans are on to Hart.
He is mockingly applauded for dealing with routine shots and back-passes and it is recognised that the man has gone from being head and shoulders above the competition to the most problematical keeper in the league in just over one year - he has made more points-losing mistakes than any other EPL goalie since beginning of 2012/13 season.
And having cost his team two Premier League title chances, an FA Cup Final and Champions League 2nd Phase qualification (last season) in that period, his days are numbered.
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The Impact of Agents

Since the beginning of last season, Charlie (Joe) Hart has shown inadequacies in matches against Real Madrid, Manchester United, Bayern Munchen, Chelsea, Liverpool, Aston Villa, Norwich, Southampton (twice), CSKA Moscow, Wigan (in the FA Cup Final) and several England games (including the games versus Eire and Scotland).
In any other profession other than central banking, he would have been demoted. But he hasn't been. Why?

Joe Hart is represented by Stellar.
Stellar represent 43 EPL players.
Stellar are very influential and, like all agents, entirely non-regulated.
The two bizarre choices in Roy Hodgson's Euro 2012 squad (Jack Butland and Martin Kelly) were both represented by Stellar.
Stellar also have a propensity for goalkeepers with 9 keepers being on their books in the EPL and the Championship.

Agents operate competitively but some also form a fragmented cartel to ensure mutual benefits.
So 13 members of the Euro 2012 squad came from Stellar, Base, Key Sports and Ungeklart (Hodgson is himself represented by Base).
And for the recent round of England internationals and Under-21 games, over 50% of the squads came from these four agencies.
This also explains Hodgson's illogical support of Joe Hart.

In total, 95 EPL players and 17 goalkeepers (in EPL and Championship) are represented by this cartel.
The over-representation of keepers is a giveaway - the goalie is the jockey, he can destabilise a whole defence and his errors are result changing.
There are agencies in Italy that thrive on representing goalkeepers, say, Pastorello or Assist ( the former represent 4 of the most problematical Italian goalies while the latter promote six keepers out of just 15 players on their books)

In a non-regulated area, this is an infrastructure primed for corruption.
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The Corrupted Holistic

So why do agents and dodgy players underperform?
Surely the advancement of career and winning prizes is the career aim?
Well, no, it isn't actually.

The global underground betting markets have volumes of £650 billion per year.

Manuel Neuer, the very excellent FC Bayern keeper, is worth approximately £30 million.
Joe Hart should be worth the same amount but the recent underperformances have seen his value depreciate to £20 million.
Of course, the "real" value for a problematical keeper is less than zero - the keeper/agents should pay the club to allow the squiggler to play!

When Manchester City eventually sell Hart, both Stellar and Hart will receive £1.25 million less than they would without the "mistakes".

It is an isolated fact, but in a sector where money dominates, it is feasible to place £10 million bets on any EPL match in the Asian underground without the broker even blinking.
Do the maths!
And the people behind Stellar are known for pushing legalities in football while one of the co-owners of Key Sports is a professional gambler!

This degree of power in the hands of football agents is a succession of criminalities waiting to happen - 95 players in the EPL, 17 goalies at 44 teams in EPL and Championship.
Think about the options!!
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What Does This All Mean For Manchester City (And England)?

Having lost out on an EPL title, a FA Cup triumph, Champions League latter stages last year, being markedly off the pace in the EPL this season and having lost £10 million player value, you would think that City would learn.
Manchester City Analytics are the analysts behind the club and, by focusing on minutiae and micro-analysis, this body repeatedly fails the club by missing the really key inputs.
City had a net spend of £93 million in the summer, the second highest in Europe.
This spending will fall foul of the UEFA Financial Fair Play regulations undermining City's future opportunities and, probably, preventing any chance of the club being invited to the European Super League.

Hart should have been sold last January - the club would have received the full £30 million fee, the FA Cup would have been won and City would be up there with Arsenal and Liverpool this season.
Furthermore the near one hundred million net spend could then be perceived as valid due to short-term rewards.

So now Pellegrini has to choose between the largely untried Costel Pantilimon or call up Richard Wright...
... who is represented by Stellar agents!

And meanwhile, Roy Hodgson will stay loyal.
After all, considering everything from his own perspective, why wouldn't he stick with Charlie Hart?

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed

© Football is Fixed 2006-2013

Saturday 26 October 2013

FC Bayern - The New Barca?

When FC Bayern deconstructed the Barcelona Dream Machine in the Champions League last season, there was always the nagging underlying reality that Lionel Messi was not a factor...
... in fact by carrying his injury through merely 7.5km in the 1st Leg, his selection increased the emphatic nature of the scoreline.

Then Jupp Heynckes retired and the mainstream media trailed lots of narratives featuring negative assessments of Guardiola's prospects as the new manager. These ranged from "he is buying at the top - how can last year be improved upon?" to the "he's not match-ready having taken a sabbatical out of the sport for a year" to "his Mediterranean tactics will not suit Bavarian culture".
The knives were out during the experimental period of the pre-season friendlies.
Different formations and tactics were assessed in an enlightened strategy of experimentation and tactical disinformation.

Then the European Super Cup was won in the battle of wills against Jose Mourinho but that defeat was explained away by the harsh red card for Ramirez and the inexperience of Lukaku by Mourinho and media alike.

Then the demolition of Manchester City changed perceptions and the footballing extravaganza put on versus Viktoria Plzen in the Champions League this week was absolute.
35 shots to nil.
22 on target.
35-0 and 22-0.
Two Champions League records.

To those who say that this dominance was "only Plzen", we tell you that the Czech team were the fittest side in Champions League qualification. They have won the very competitive Czech Liga in two of the last three years and are unbeaten in 11 domestic games this term.

FC Bayern are combining the tiki-taka of Catalunya with the manufactured template of Teutonic efficiency to produce the ultimate club team.

UEFA does not allow teams to win consecutive Champions League trophies preferring, instead, to spread the jewels around the cartel.
But FC Bayern aren't even in gear yet, as that will only occur after the mid-season break, and there is already a lot of professional money suggesting that the consecutive winner taboo will be broken this year as it may be that FC Bayern are impossible to stop.

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed

© Football is Fixed 2006-2013  

Thursday 24 October 2013

When Is Racism Not Racism?

Racism is based on fear.

In fact, everything is based on fear.

So, recent events in Eire suggest it is now reasonable to take children away from their parents in order to do DNA tests, do they?
Has nobody ever heard of recessive genes?
Meanwhile desperately poor Roma share upbringing of children in austerity-ravaged Greece and mafia-ravaged Bulgaria. The authorities snatch the child away. This is just a version of Madonna and African children but at the very bottom of the European pyramid.

Time to wake up.

This is becoming like Germany in the early thirties.

And the Roma parents feeling that they needed to cover their faces in the media glare when, in reality, it should be the authorities, the police and the grassing neighbours who should be covering their heads collectively in shame at this outrageous racist violation.

Fear induces racism and racism, in turn, induces fear.
A vicious cycle.
What is it about our species that leads to racism repeatedly being the default mode of existence?

Yesterday, Yaya Toure was subjected to "monkey chants" whenever he orchestrated the Champions League match in Moscow between CSKA and Manchester City.
He received large numbers of supportive messages on Twitter and thanked City fans - he was evidently moved by the degree of response.

Previously.
It was disclosed in the mainstream media that Roy Hodgson had used the expression "monkey" in reference to Andros Townsend in his half-time team talk against Poland.
Reuters reports that "a number" of England players were offended by Hodgson's "joke".

Hodgson's initial response was to be "livid" at the leak from his dressing room.

The match was on Tuesday and it took the England manager until Thursday to apologise for saying "anything inappropriate".
What sort of mealy-mouthed apology is that, Roy?

                               Yaya Toure Points Out Roy Hodgson To Romanian Referee

And Roy has got form...
... not just in a range of racist spectacles that have been played out in the media over the last year and a half regarding John Terry, Rio Ferdinand, his denial of knowledge of racist chanting by England fans etc etc.

But Roy decided to break the anti-apartheid sanctions against South Africa by opting to take the rancid rand and ply his footballing trade there when a player.
Form.

Of course, now all is said to be sweetness and light but the undercurrent of racism in the English dressing room still exists...
... the players' agents have merely stepped in and pointed out financial necessities in a World Cup year, that's all.

Roy should come out and state that "ALL RACISM IS WRONG. ALWAYS".
For the good of his team, his squad and the country at large.

And what is the difference between the racism of the CSKA "fans" and Roy Hodgson?
Yaya Toure receives immense and encouraging support.
But the Guardian Comments on a column by Daniel Taylor on "Hodgson and racism" was full of racist content...
... despite all the previous.
Just a kneejerk racist response from the readers of Britain's leading (sic) left-of-centre enterprise.

Why is Russian racism bad and English racism good?

Meanwhile, Greg Dyke the top man (sic) at the FA, having just been shown of a bias towards white male faces in his vicinity, chirrups in with support for Hodgson describing him as "a man of the highest integrity".

No, Mr Dyke.
"Highest integrity" is being imprisoned in Robben Island, Pollsmoor and Victor Verster prisons for 27 years.

And this morning, Osasu Obayiuwana (a member of FIFA's anti racist task force) tweeted: "UEFA reduce Lazio's punishment from a complete shut-out to a partial closure, for racist chanting in a Europa Cup game. This is not right!"

No it is not right.

Racism across the European game.

"ALL RACISM IS WRONG. ALWAYS."

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed

© Football is Fixed 2006-2013  

Saturday 19 October 2013

Give The Man A Gong For Being Wrong

Eugene Fama was selected as one of the three Nobel Prize for Economics recipients this week.

His hypothesis regarding the efficiency of financial markets is indeed elegant (which sometimes is enough for an award to be made) but it is also utterly and completely wrong.
Not particularly impressed with his Fama-French Three-Factor Model either (but more on that later).

If there were no government interferences, no psychopathies, no behavioural irrationalities, no corruptions nor criminalities and if market sectors didn't always evolve towards maturity, he would be right.
But as these inputs drive all markets, the laureate is surely wrong.

Fama's Efficient Markets Hypothesis was put forward in 1970 and formed an intellectual basis for the shock doctrine disaster neo-capitalism that the world has experienced since.
By being a part of the "intellectual" framework gathered as an neo-con edifice at the University of Chicago, Fama bears some responsibility for this sociopathic system.

So, what is Gene's hypothesis and why is it incorrect?

The Efficient Markets Hypothesis is split into three levels - strong-form, semi-strong-form and weak-form efficiency.
Strong-form suggests that market prices reflect all information, public and private, and it is not possible for anyone to earn excess returns.
In semi-stong-form, prices adjust to new information rapidly and rationally.
While weak-form structures, prices simply follow a random walk.

Before we go any further we need to look at the architecture of markets.
The public markets are just the top of an iceberg of submerged Dark Pool markets - there are hundreds of unregulated Dark Pools where insiders trade against insiders in markets that the public only sees when an excess of over-enthusiasm occurs. It is in these markets that the big market plays are made not the public ones.

For all assessments of Fama's Hypothesis, therefore, it will need to be addressed on two levels - the public markets and the Dark Pools.

1) The most dominant input to the wrongness of Fama's Hypothesis is behaviouralism.
Work in the sixties by Daniel Kahnemann, Amos Tversky, Paul Slovic and Richard Thaler had already introduced psychology to the market and, in 1979, Kahnemann and Tversky developed Prospect Theory which represented the final psychological nail in the coffin of Efficient Markets. Investors do not behave in a rational manner in the marketplace for a whole continuum of different reasons that both exist within themselves and also interact in complex ways between themselves to produce the behaviours that we project. Market prices represent mass human psychology far more than they do unproved economic fundamentals.
So by 1979, Fama's Hypothesis should have been put to bed...
... unfortunately, it took the blinkered Chicago School until 2007 to acknowledge the impact of behaviouralism in markets, attempting to convince us in the meantime that an efficient pricing infrastructure underpinned the alleged validity of Friedmanian late capitalism..

Slavoj Žižek: "The problem is today when you have chaos or disorder, people lose their cognitive mapping."

2) All of the information is not in the market. Even if behaviouralism did not exist and we were all perfectly rational in all of our decision-making, efficient markets would be compromised on all three levels of Fama's efficiency hierarchy.
Public markets are largely inefficient being too far from the core Dark Pools to be benefiting instantaneously to the flow of real information. The public markets offer a distilled filtered form of this driving underground Dark Pool marketplace. Dark Pool trading strategies become converted into a holistic market strategy as Dark Pool liabilities are hedged in the public sphere.

What about the Dark Pools?
Are they a proof of Fama efficiencies?

No.
Behaviouralism is a "plug in" in any market, public or Dark Pool.
Additionally, the information flow in Dark Pools is, by its very nature, opaque.
Proxy trading, algorithmic distortions, hidden players away from the table, consortia strategies, disinformational trading, cornered markets etc etc.
At any given time, the market tends to inefficiency.
As mature markets might evolve into anything the primary operators desire, the price can be anything too.

Mature markets (and these are the ones most traded in the Dark Pools) are largely under the absolute control of a small grouping of operations, think OPEC. Individual members of OPEC have their own hidden agendas over and above the shared agenda with fellow members. Even when the structure is held in place with extra robustness due to government scaffolding around the market, the major player(s) is/are still able to make the market whatever they desire whenever they desire.
In effect monopolistic corruption distorts any semblance of efficiency in the market while duopolistic or cartel behaviour offers a slightly diluted version of the same.

3) Disaster capitalism undermines any efficiency in any financial market.
The Friedmanian disaster capitalism complex thrives on chaos. When a disaster strikes or, as in the case of Chile, is created, the Chicago school Hayekians move in with their shock tactics to further destabilise an already destabilised people. As US security entities move into the vacuum, the markets are utterly chaotic. Although some efficiency and robustness is added to the marketplace ironically by the strategies of these security operations (the same template being micro-adjusted from territory to territory) the holistic performance of the markets are driven by irrationalities and the efficiencies fall off the bottom of Fama's ratings chart. Andrew Haldane, who should have been made Governor of the Bank of England, refers to this inability to judge risk as "disaster myopia".

Disaster myopia in a disaster capitalism complex!

4) Private information is introduced to the market in a variety of strategies that, by their very nature, imply market inefficiencies being created for the advantage of Dark Pool operations.
Knowledge within a company, governmental or central bank policies, trading disinformation for future profits, competitive market poker play all are based around the possession of the ultimate power play for the marketplace. Just think of the variety of ways in which, say, Ben Bernanke could have utilised his absolute knowledge of the variables related to quantitative easing. An individual, with evolving strategies, could make money without the full reality hitting the market by placing trades laterally and peripherally.

Noam Chomsky would call this "cogntive regulatory capture" and it is a structure typical of late capitalism.

5) The most obvious way in which financial markets are inefficient is by their refusal to accept the cost of externalities in the price of an asset.
How on earth can a price be efficient in the holistic sense if externalities are not included in the calculation? The price can only be considered in any way efficient in short time frames as, when the true costs are included, the asset value is very different indeed. The timing of this market implosion can be an unknown variable.

Friedmanism underprices risk and ignores externalities.
The eventual impact of these externalities is infrastructurally significant.

Although Dark Pools are displaced up the efficiency hierarchy due to lack of time lag and the primary element in the insider trading, the markets increase in efficiency is only marginal and only due to corrupting inputs being introduced to the market price.
If all corrupt inputs in a mature market could be known and assessed both singly and in association with one another, only then might a corrupt market approach strong-form efficiency and in a non-regulated marketplace this is simply not going to occur.

Which brings us to the conclusion of yet another aspect of the fake of Friedmanism.
Fama's only other claim to fame is the already mentioned Fama-French Three-Factor Model.
This attempts to replace the old Capital Asset Pricing Model (which, by the way, is also inadequate).
Needless to say the Three-Factor model doesn't work as it ignores corruption and behaviouralism.

Entertainingly, Foye, Mramor and Pahor (2013) have shown an improvement in the performance of the Fama-French model if one of the terms is replaced by a term that acts as a proxy for accounting manipulation!

These papers are amongst the first tentative steps of economics crawling towards holistically analysing the hyperreality.

Benoît Mandelbrot: "Financial economics, as a discipline, is where Chemistry was in the 16th century: a messy compendium of proven know-how, misty folk wisdom, and unexamined assumptions and grandiose speculation."

As a former pupil of Mandelbrot, Fama should know better...
... grandiose models, unexamined inputs, misty economic wisdom mixed with the status quo.

And, anyway, as economics in rather dubious fashion claims to be a science, let's address it as such...

Michel Foucault: "If one recognises in science only the linear accumulation of truths or the orthogenesis of reason, and fails to recognise in it the discursive practice that has its own levels, its own thresholds, its own various ruptures, one can describe only a single historical division, which one adopts as a model to be applied at all times for all forms of knowledge."

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed

© Football is Fixed 2006-2013  

More On The European Super League

We have been informed that discussions have taken place about the UEFA European Super League (ESL) being a SUMMER TOURNAMENT.

This fits perfectly with a Qatar Winter World Cup and has less financial impact on the national association leagues and the English Premier League too.
Additionally it will allow a trickledown effect allowing Barcelona first team players to appear for the 'B' side, for example.

Starting in 2018/19, the only negative would appear to be the much-messed-around-with Euros of 2020 as such an extravaganza would mean a month window in the ESL season.

Or Euro 2020 could be moved to the winter too?

We are also being told that the mooted ESL2 for teams "rated" 21-40 in the power hierarchy will occur but at a later date.

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed

© Football is Fixed 2006-2013  

Wednesday 16 October 2013

Reality!? It's Football, Jim, But Not As We Know It

Germany 4 Sweden 4 

Germany 4-0 with 30 minutes to go.

Sweden 4 shots on target.

4 goals.

Draw available at 1000/1 at 4-0.

Sweden 3 Germany 5

Sweden 2-0 up just before half time.

Germany 6 shots on target.

5 goals.

Germany available at 12/1 at 2-0.

Two separate matches with 4 goal turnarounds.

Betting patterns on these two matches are remarkably similar in architecture.

If this were Panionios v Dinamo Tbilisi, the relevant people would be looking at these events.

Or is it only Metalist Kharkiv and Fenerbache and other lower tiered clubs who have to bear annoyance of scrutiny?

Theatrical... 

There might be nothing murky - just two remarkably unlikely coincidences in juxtaposition but FIFA surely has to have a look.

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed

© Football is Fixed 2006-2013  

Tuesday 15 October 2013

Abdullah (Bruno) Metsu - Global Football Ambassador - RIP

                                                         Football With A Smile

Football could do with more people like Abdullah Metsu...

... the world could do with more people like Abdullah Metsu.

Sunday 13 October 2013

Hook Line And Sinker - John Colquhoun, Threats And Menaces, Stuffed Envelopes...

Kriminalität und Korruption von Fußball-Agents in der englischen Premier League

THIS POST IS FOR OUR CONSULTANCY PARTNERS AND CLIENTS ONLY, SORRY.

BUT... 

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed

© Football is Fixed 2006-2013  

Friday 11 October 2013

The Corporate Takeover Of The Beautiful Game

In a previous post (http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2006/12/las-vegasisation-of-football.html), we addressed the complete absence of the issue of betting when the media confronts the ongoing stream of takeovers of Premiership football clubs.
For sure, the lucrative television rights, sponsorship and global merchandising prospects play a part in the strategies of the tycoons taking over our game but the financial gains from global gambling opportunities are truly stratospheric.
Global betting turnover on a major Premiership game can exceed £200m and the average turnover on matches in the top English league is around £50m per game. Ownership of the participatory clubs releases huge potential revenue streams for the investors whether they elect to link closely with one particular bookmaker, trade on a proprietary basis or work with a consortium of market makers.
Let's look at some comparative figures here to demonstrate the destabilising impact of gambling on football.
* Projected cumulative Premiership revenues for 2007/08 = £1.7bn (this is equivalent to an average of £85m per club - although there is a greater slice of the pie for the big 4). These figures cover tv rights, merchandise, ticket sales etc.
* Manchester United sponsorship deal with AIG = £14m per year (over four years).
* Hicks and Gillett paid approximately £220m to takeover Liverpool FC.
* Liverpool v Chelsea had a global betting volume of £225m on just one match. Working alongside compliant Asian or European market makers would enable Hicks and Gillett, for example, to finance their takeover of one of the Big 4 teams within one season simply by betting on their teams matches selectively. And, this is without their betting/trading activities particularly tilting the markets. Obviously, a more psychopathic approach to trading on the betting markets could guarantee the returns in a shorter period.
To understand how the Premiership is being primed for this future, we need to look at the regulatory, territorial and business structures that are being gradually put in place to facilitate this operation.
The British government has spent much of it's terms in office cosying up to the betting industry on a range of levels - the super-casino in Manchester; the forthcoming relaxation of regulatory barriers to further super-casinos around Britain; sympathetic treatment of betting taxation issues; the refusal to face down corruption in the sport; the lax safety nets for punters addicted to online poker, casinos, the National Lottery and other gambling products etc etc. Britain is now the most favourable gambling location in the west. Bookmakers that moved offshore (primarily to Gibraltar) in the 1990's are returning home to find a far more supportive environment (although some layers are maintaining their offshore trading rooms for global trading practicalities).
Additionally, as London is a leading global finance centre, the supportive expertise and trading infrastructure is already in place. All of the major City firms are taking a proactive interest in football nowadays.
Most English football clubs are in private ownership which prevents public scrutiny of their financial operations. This inevitably attracts investors who are experienced in the "wild west" form of capitalism where anything goes in the pursuit of profit. Nobody will have full access to the balance sheets of people like Abramovich and Gaydamak. These individuals create complex accounting structures across different territories to disguise their proprietary financial operations.
The combination of infrastructure, expertise, regulatory environment, business structure and complicit government is ideal for the project's foundation.
Comparatively, in the US (hardly wet-behind-the-ears when it comes to shareholder capitalism), the NFL prohibits a) club owners having links with bookmakers, b) club branded credit cards being foisted on gullible fans and c) most online gambling. So, England steps up to the plate and US investors look across the Atlantic for a favourable environment.
Let's look at the individual investors (and potential investors) for some further clues as to these operator's hidden agendas.
* Tom Hicks - Hicks has had a long term interest in leveraged buyouts and has close associations with the Private Equity industry. The man has a history of utilising creative destruction forms of capitalism. He is a personal friend of George W. Bush.
* Randy Lerner - Having started out as an investment analyst (he specialised in arbitrage which is the market activity that adds least value to the financial system), he became chairman of MBNA credit card firm in 1993. MBNA was the world's largest independent credit card issuer.
* Eggert Magnusson - Made his money out of brewing beer in Russia after the Iron Curtain came down - 'nuff said...
* Roman Abramovich - The 11th richest man in the world has current legal issues including France commencing money laundering investigations into companies linked to Abramovich. A friend of Russian oligarch, Boris Berezovsky.
* George Gillett - Similarly to co-conspirator, Tom Hicks, Gillett has a long history around the Private Equity industry. His financial CV includes the creative use of American bankruptcy laws to dissolve his own business while walking away with $32.1 million - which he used to restart his business empire. He's big in meat. We suggest Liverpool closely check the small print!
* Arcadi and Alexandre Gaydamak - It is a generally accepted fact within the game that Arcadi is in control at Portsmouth although his son covers for him. Arcadi Gaydamak is a bit of an operator. This man travels on his Angola passport to avoid the French arrest warrant that exists for illegal arms dealing, tax evasion and money laundering. He was allegedly involved in the Mossad-backed regime-change in Angola when Savimbi was taken out and the west exerted control over Angola's oil industry. He is currently seeking a populist political ticket in Israel.
* The Glazers - Much has been written about the Glazers and we won't revisit the evidence here as there are numerous websites addressing the Glazers hidden agenda. Malcolm is another who counts George W. Bush among his friends.
* Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum - Even richer than Abramovich (5th richest person in the world), Big Mo has extensive horseracing interests - being a leading partner in Godolphin. His wealth is estimated at £14bn (which is an awful lot of shirt sponsorship deals!).
* Stan Kroenke - Linked to Wal-Mart by marriage and business, Kroenke is now also linked to Arsenal. Nepotistic advantage is the basis of his business empire.
The majority of the individuals mentioned above are in the Forbes 400 as one of the richest people in the world.
Why are people from this strata of society taking an interest in the English game?
It must be something to do with the tradition, the passion, the kudos, a lifelong love of the game, the footballing culture, the crowds and the atmosphere... that sort of thing.
In our estimation, we will see the first £1.0bn Premiership betting market in the next 2-5 years. Such enhanced liquidity will allow bets of £5m to not be worthy of note in the marketplace while the truly colossal positions will be hovering around the £100m level. For one football match!
Gillett and Hicks got Liverpool on the cheap.
If I were a young moneyhead, I would have to consider the opportunity of taking up a career in football refereeing!

The European Super League And The End Of The Premier League As We Know It

One of our contacts at UEFA has given a colleague the list of clubs involved in discussions over the implementation of the European Super League (ESL) in 2018/19.

Although not mentioned at the time, this is the primary reason for Michel Platini's decision for the UEFA Euro's in 2020 being shared between 13 different countries as opposed to the usual one or two. Euro 2020 will serve as a marketing back up for the ESL as well as a sweetener for nations who miss out on the ESL cash bonanza.

The ESL will feature 20 clubs largely grouped around the G14(18) body which was supposedly disbanded in 2008. But when has a power group ever voluntarily relinquished psychopathic control of a market?

This blog first outlined the inevitability of the ESL back in 2007...
... which makes us prescient!

Both Andrea Agnelli of Juventus and Unal Aysal of Galatasaray were present at the discussions over formation of ESL and have shared the reality in the media in Italy and Turkey. Aysal: “The system has to be put in place, either by UEFA or by the clubs themselves. Then we will decide if a breakaway will be a necessity or not."
So UEFA either encourages and orchestrates the ESL or the clubs will remove themselves from both UEFA and national league structures and set up a free-standing tournament.

And what will this all mean for the Premier League and other leading European leagues? Well, the loss of their major turnover members or their replacement by 'B' teams akin to the Segunda Liga in Spain where Real Madrid B and Barcelona B ply their trades.
We suspect the latter as the option of 'B' teams in England has been discussed openly in recent months.

We have been told the full list of the 20 teams that are involved in the discussions and we reveal those that we are able to below:

Manchester United
Barcelona
AC Milan
Juventus
Ajax Amsterdam
Paris St Germain
Real Madrid
Galatasaray
Bayern Munchen
Borussia Dortmund
Inter Milan
Porto
Shakhtar Donetsk
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The European Club Association (ECA) claim to know nothing about the ESL but the 2018/19 start date is based on the conclusion of the memorandum of understanding between UEFA and the ECA which expires in 2018. Additionally, the final Champions League three year package terminates in 2018 too.

There have also been rumours of an ESL2 but we are informed that this option is a no-no and will be utilised as part of the bargaining in the negotiations with national associations and the Premier League.
Accept losing your biggest three teams or we will take the biggest 5 or 6.

It is our belief that UEFA will elect to control the ESL and avoid the option of a free-standing insider corrupted body being formed, something that Richard Scudamore at the Premier League understands all too well.

So, in Britain, which clubs out of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City and Celtic will be invited?
That answer is based on accepting Financial Fair Play, not undertaking insider trading and no proximity to local mafiosi groups...
... which leaves just two clubs.

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed

© Football is Fixed 2006-2013  

Sunday 6 October 2013

Kick Out Kickbacks For A Kick Off


A back of a white envelope...
... and a pen.

A 20 year old player is worth £400,000.
He gets selected in the squad of a north European nation for World Cup 2014 in Brazil.
His value inflates, in the instant, by 2,000% to £8 million.
This is because football transfer markets are incredibly inefficient.
The value will eventually settle down around £5.5 million when more sober assessments are made.
This is still overvalued.

If the player is sold immediately after selection for World Cup squad, the agents take 12.5% - so the agents pocket £1 million on the transfer.
There will be further "bonuses" down the line with, perhaps, another million to be made on the percentages.
So £2 million over the playing career from their slice of the transfer market then.

Wages inflate markedly when a player gets selected in the World Cup squad of a north European team.
A player on £5,000 per week is suddenly worth £50,000 per week (the wage market is more dampened).
This level is maintained +/- for remainder of career.
So the agent grabs his 12.5% of the wage packet of the additional £2.34 million per year for 13 years, say.
That is a career "earning" on wages for the agents of around £4 million.

Ignoring the slices taken off the peripherals relating to a player's career and without taking any account of being shoe-horned into a suitable slot in mainstream media following your career...
... the agent(s) still earn an extra £6 million on the player just based on one non-meritocratic selection.

Most squads can "accommodate" two selections for each tournament that are considered a bit "out there".

So a national team manager of a North European nation can generate an extra £12 million of "value" for each World Cup in charge and an extra £9 million for each Euro's - £21 million every four years in charge on top of more legitimate earnings.

Most of the top agents are co-partnerships so you could neatly divide the £21 million "bonus" between the two partners and the manager - an illicit £7 million each if both players were from the same agency.

The individuals involved in such a sting believe their strategy is grey market, exploiting positions of power, slicing a non-regulated sector.
But it is just based on being in the inner loop of corruption in a non-regulated sector.

NB All projections above ignore inflation, currency issues, injuries and other key sports influences on a stellar career etc.

'Tis just a back of a white envelope calculation about the passing of brown envelopes...

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed

© Football is Fixed 2006-2013  

Wednesday 2 October 2013

Taking On Hunnery In All It's Forms


Celtic should be sitting on 2 points in Champions League Group H this morning...
... instead they sit bottom with no points, no goals and no hope.

A different array of strategic errors undermined the real chance of a draw against a Messi-less Barca but, overall, the lack of a valid holistic at the top is the issue - some members of the board put brinksmanship ahead of the good of the club and, in the same manner that Peter Lawwell had to apologise to fans for his strategic errors handing the 2008/09 Scottish Premier League title to #Rangers, a further apology is in order because this Champions League campaign has been self-harming throughout.
See http://footballisfixed.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/one-love-art-of-war.html

                 Peter Lawwell Experiencing Facial Inflation At The Thought Of Making A Decision
 
We were offered a consultancy arrangement by Peter Lawwell for the Group Stage of the 2013/14 tournament but once Mr Lawwell started to reinvent realities and our lawyer informed us that he would not let us work with Celtic due to economies of truth in the negotiation process, we took our other option instead (working with the top team in Europe is preferable to the 56th best side!).

We intended to charge £100,000 for a four month deal.
We were able to guarantee 60% probability of second place in the group which would have earned the club an extra £3.5 million.

£100,000 = 60% probability of +£3.5 million.
£0 = +£0.

And money matters...
... Mr Lawwell is rewarded with a £700K annual contract yet John Keane, who reached into his own pocket to save the club when it was on the verge of termination in 1994, is still owed the £1 million he put up to secure Celtic's future.

And £700K per annum for micro-managed brinksmanship?
Chief executives are paid handsomely to make difficult, often psychopathic, decisions.
By leaving strategic choices until the very last moment, Lawwell removes the skill input to such decisions and replaces with the cruel hand of fate - he is reactive to realities planned and executed elsewhere.
Reactive rather than proactive...

But here is one holistic that is worthy of consideration at the very least.

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Signing potentially destabilising individuals who base life decisions solely on financial considerations is a self-destructive time-bomb.
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Which brings us back to that old chestnut of club loyalty.
Fans believe in their club but do owners, chief executives, players and their agents?
Or do they just believe in money and in exploiting the fans for their misguided belief in something which only retains its sense of identity in two areas - the history and these self-same fans.

No doubt there will be those that say that the club is everything and that nothing negative should be applied to Celtic FC but it is exactly this point which persuaded us to approach Celtic in the first place.
Last year's Champions League progression was largely a fluke based on good fortune rather than good judgment.
The Qualifiers and the first two matches in the Group Stage this season have been equally short-termist and self-harming.
The club must improve strategically.

We made that offer...
... and we will make that offer again in the future when the club is under a different regime.

For many more itemised angles on corruption follow us on Twitter @FootballIsFixed

© Football is Fixed 2006-2013